***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 13.2 18.3 17.9 158.3 80.8 66.1 2.9 4.6 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.9 19.8 14.4 138.5 71.3 62.3 3.0 4.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 13.0 16.3 17.7 156.9 79.1 66.5 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 13.7 16.0 22.1 167.5 80.5 68.1 2.3 7.4 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 14.4 19.0 20.9 176.1 80.8 68.7 1.8 5.9 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 11.9 22.1 20.9 185.1 84.2 70.1 0.7 4.7 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.2 16.4 14.3 144.4 71.6 63.3 2.9 7.7 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 21.3 31.2 21.8 181.4 82.2 69.0 5.6 12.0 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 13.5 17.6 20.0 173.5 81.6 68.4 0.3 6.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 15.6 21.5 21.0 175.7 82.0 68.3 1.0 7.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 13.4 21.2 21.5 180.8 84.6 69.2 0.1 5.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 12.6 19.1 21.0 184.1 82.7 68.8 0.5 5.1 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 11.7 27.8 22.0 191.7 86.4 69.6 0.5 5.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 18.5 24.8 20.3 154.5 78.5 65.9 4.3 7.0 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 11.2 18.5 22.0 167.2 81.0 69.3 0.7 2.9 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 11.2 19.4 21.9 194.6 86.1 70.4 0.4 3.9 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.7 19.7 13.2 126.9 69.8 60.6 1.8 5.9 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 14.9 21.9 20.7 166.6 81.7 67.4 2.0 6.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 16.2 19.3 15.1 140.6 73.3 63.3 2.1 5.2 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 19.0 26.8 25.4 168.9 78.5 67.6 3.0 5.4 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 12.3 15.7 19.4 165.8 81.0 68.5 1.8 5.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.4 26.9 14.4 126.4 71.5 61.7 2.1 4.3 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 17.2 17.7 16.4 143.6 74.4 64.6 2.5 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 11.6 16.7 19.8 163.5 81.6 67.9 1.3 4.5 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 9.7 11.6 20.3 158.7 77.5 67.6 1.1 4.4 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.1 17.2 23.3 183.2 83.0 71.2 0.2 8.7 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 11.1 14.1 18.8 154.5 78.1 65.8 2.4 5.3 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 10.8 19.4 21.9 182.8 84.3 69.8 0.5 3.7 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 23.0 30.6 22.1 162.3 82.2 66.6 4.0 9.9 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 15.0 17.3 15.6 146.0 74.6 63.3 2.3 5.3 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------