***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.7 14.3 125.0 71.5 61.4 0.8 8.4 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 12.6 15.8 14.0 123.6 69.3 62.0 0.7 3.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.2 12.4 13.3 118.9 67.1 59.8 1.2 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.5 10.5 81.7 58.2 50.2 1.8 4.1 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.2 5.7 10.8 90.4 55.0 52.8 2.3 5.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 3.2 6.1 11.4 108.2 60.0 58.4 0.0 2.2 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.8 13.2 13.8 119.8 67.2 61.7 0.3 3.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 11.8 11.6 12.6 94.4 56.9 55.1 2.4 9.6 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.8 6.3 11.7 101.1 55.8 55.2 2.2 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 8.3 11.0 12.8 99.5 57.9 56.1 1.6 6.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.9 9.3 11.3 90.2 59.2 54.6 0.8 5.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 7.8 10.4 11.7 96.5 59.0 56.0 1.1 6.0 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 6.7 9.1 12.0 95.2 58.2 55.4 0.6 4.7 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.7 30.2 16.1 116.0 66.1 59.5 2.5 13.6 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.8 2.9 9.4 76.0 59.4 50.4 0.7 2.5 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 7.5 7.1 11.4 93.9 58.7 54.9 0.1 5.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.5 10.9 13.1 113.3 68.6 60.0 0.2 2.8 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 12.3 13.8 13.6 105.5 58.9 57.0 3.4 10.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 14.9 14.4 14.2 123.7 68.7 61.8 1.3 4.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 11.1 10.8 13.6 92.3 53.5 52.6 0.8 9.4 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.7 12.6 108.9 60.9 56.5 2.0 7.7 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 12.8 14.5 14.1 115.4 67.4 59.8 0.2 2.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.8 18.8 14.3 121.4 69.8 61.0 1.9 5.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.8 13.5 13.6 111.3 62.4 58.6 1.7 8.5 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.2 10.4 13.4 107.0 63.0 56.5 0.2 4.9 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 5.6 5.0 10.1 88.3 54.4 52.8 0.3 3.8 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.6 14.0 14.2 122.1 68.3 60.2 0.2 8.4 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.4 9.9 80.5 58.5 50.7 0.4 2.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 16.6 17.4 13.5 99.6 57.4 54.4 3.7 13.8 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 13.3 14.6 13.8 123.8 70.4 62.1 0.8 4.1 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------