***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 10.1 9.9 9.8 -0.9 32.1 36.7 10.0 11.2 11.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 9.0 9.7 9.8 -0.9 32.5 36.5 9.7 10.6 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 10.2 10.4 10.2 -0.9 33.8 38.3 10.4 11.2 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.2 4.4 7.0 -0.9 33.1 37.8 4.4 5.2 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 10.1 10.4 8.3 -0.9 34.0 38.1 10.3 11.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.5 7.8 -0.5 41.6 44.0 10.2 11.3 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 9.0 9.1 9.7 -1.0 31.4 35.7 9.2 10.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.3 3.7 7.8 -0.6 36.6 41.6 3.5 4.5 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.6 10.9 9.2 -0.8 35.1 39.4 10.7 12.1 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.5 8.5 -0.7 36.1 41.3 10.3 11.5 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.3 8.7 -0.8 37.5 40.2 10.6 11.6 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 10.0 11.1 8.2 -0.7 36.9 40.6 10.6 11.7 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.3 8.4 -0.7 37.7 41.5 10.8 11.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.6 11.0 9.7 -0.6 38.2 42.3 10.5 11.8 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 8.8 8.8 8.2 -0.9 33.6 37.9 8.8 10.0 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.9 11.5 8.3 -0.7 37.9 40.8 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 8.5 9.4 9.5 -1.0 33.7 35.9 9.4 9.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.2 8.3 -0.6 37.7 42.9 9.0 10.4 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 9.4 10.0 10.0 -0.9 34.2 37.6 9.9 10.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.9 8.4 6.9 -0.4 38.9 44.4 7.6 8.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.3 10.3 9.7 -0.9 34.0 38.2 10.2 11.7 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.0 10.1 9.6 -0.9 37.6 37.2 9.8 10.5 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 9.5 10.3 10.3 -0.7 36.6 40.0 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.6 9.5 -0.6 37.6 41.8 10.3 11.9 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 9.3 9.7 8.5 -1.0 32.1 36.2 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.7 10.9 7.7 -0.7 36.6 40.1 10.8 11.1 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 10.0 10.4 9.3 -0.9 32.2 36.7 10.5 11.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 9.6 9.2 7.7 -0.8 34.9 39.3 9.0 11.0 11.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.1 7.5 7.9 -0.5 40.2 44.1 7.2 7.9 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 9.2 9.6 9.8 -0.9 32.2 36.4 9.6 10.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------