***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 11.2 11.0 9.2 1.7 69.4 63.6 6.1 8.1 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 11.0 10.4 9.1 1.5 66.2 63.0 6.0 8.1 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 12.2 11.9 9.6 1.7 69.9 63.4 7.6 9.5 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 5.8 6.8 6.6 1.7 69.8 63.2 1.4 3.3 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.5 12.5 7.7 1.7 71.1 63.1 7.0 9.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.8 10.9 7.3 2.0 68.4 65.0 6.4 8.7 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 10.8 10.4 9.1 1.6 67.3 63.5 6.0 8.0 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 4.6 5.0 7.2 1.7 67.7 62.9 0.1 3.1 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 12.2 12.7 8.5 1.8 70.8 63.2 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 11.5 11.6 7.9 1.8 69.5 63.2 6.9 9.1 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 11.9 12.8 7.7 1.8 70.8 63.5 6.8 9.9 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.9 7.5 1.7 66.2 62.8 7.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 12.2 11.2 7.2 1.7 61.9 63.2 7.9 10.0 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 13.7 12.1 9.0 1.8 66.9 63.5 7.7 10.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 9.7 9.8 7.3 1.6 68.9 63.4 4.6 7.6 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 13.0 12.7 7.5 1.8 67.6 63.6 8.2 10.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.4 8.9 1.5 64.0 63.0 5.4 8.1 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.0 9.1 7.9 1.9 66.8 62.7 5.6 7.1 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 11.7 10.5 9.3 1.6 66.6 63.1 6.5 8.6 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.8 8.0 6.1 1.6 61.6 62.2 3.8 6.0 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 11.8 12.4 9.0 1.7 70.6 62.8 7.4 10.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.7 9.9 8.9 1.5 65.3 62.9 5.6 8.9 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.9 9.6 1.7 68.8 63.3 6.5 8.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 13.0 12.3 8.8 1.9 68.5 63.1 8.0 10.7 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 10.7 11.0 7.7 1.6 68.6 62.7 6.8 8.9 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 10.8 10.0 6.9 1.5 61.0 62.9 6.8 9.2 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.6 8.7 1.7 69.4 63.6 7.4 9.7 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 10.3 9.8 7.1 1.8 69.8 63.6 6.6 7.9 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.9 8.6 7.3 1.8 64.6 62.5 4.1 6.3 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 10.8 10.7 9.2 1.6 68.6 63.4 6.3 8.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------