***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 10.9 9.9 9.9 0.4 47.9 51.4 7.2 10.1 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.5 10.0 0.5 55.6 53.4 7.0 9.1 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.0 10.2 0.4 47.9 50.9 7.0 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 5.3 3.7 6.9 -0.1 43.6 47.4 1.3 4.2 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 10.9 9.1 8.1 0.1 44.2 48.5 6.8 10.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.6 8.2 0.9 53.0 55.7 7.8 9.3 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.9 9.6 9.9 0.5 55.4 53.6 6.7 9.4 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 3.0 1.8 8.0 0.7 48.7 53.4 0.8 1.9 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.4 9.8 8.9 0.2 46.0 49.7 7.3 10.5 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.9 9.7 8.5 0.5 46.9 52.2 6.8 10.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.2 10.0 8.3 0.3 44.9 50.2 6.8 10.4 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.9 9.9 8.2 0.5 48.5 52.3 7.1 10.0 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.7 9.6 8.2 0.7 50.8 54.9 8.4 9.5 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 11.6 10.8 9.6 0.7 53.7 53.9 7.2 10.6 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.2 7.6 -0.1 42.5 48.1 7.9 8.7 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.6 10.0 8.2 0.4 46.6 51.6 8.2 10.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.4 9.2 9.8 0.5 56.6 54.6 6.9 8.7 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 9.6 9.0 8.8 0.8 52.2 54.2 6.5 8.8 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.3 10.1 0.5 54.2 53.2 6.9 9.6 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.1 7.3 1.2 57.9 57.9 4.2 6.4 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.0 9.0 9.5 0.2 44.9 49.8 6.8 10.2 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 10.1 9.6 9.7 0.6 53.8 54.2 7.0 9.4 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.4 9.8 10.3 0.6 52.7 53.5 7.1 9.5 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.4 10.1 9.5 0.6 49.2 52.4 7.8 10.3 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.7 8.4 8.3 0.2 46.5 50.5 6.4 9.1 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.8 8.0 0.8 52.8 56.3 7.9 9.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 10.6 9.8 9.5 0.4 49.2 52.1 7.5 10.0 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.9 7.3 0.0 43.5 47.7 8.0 9.3 10.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 7.5 6.8 8.4 1.0 55.3 55.9 3.5 6.6 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.1 9.6 10.0 0.5 52.4 52.5 6.6 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------