***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 10.3 9.6 9.4 -2.3 26.8 31.2 9.9 12.5 13.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 8.7 8.8 9.4 -2.3 26.7 31.7 9.0 11.0 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 10.2 9.7 9.8 -2.3 29.8 32.8 10.2 12.4 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.6 3.4 6.6 -2.3 28.5 32.6 3.8 5.6 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 10.0 10.1 8.0 -2.3 30.6 33.6 10.1 12.7 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 9.0 9.5 7.5 -1.6 35.0 38.3 9.3 11.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 8.5 8.6 9.4 -2.3 27.6 31.6 9.3 10.9 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 2.5 3.4 7.3 -2.0 33.1 35.9 3.4 4.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.9 10.5 8.8 -2.2 33.7 34.1 10.5 13.5 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 10.4 9.9 7.9 -2.2 34.2 35.4 9.9 12.3 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 10.7 10.6 8.4 -2.1 35.4 35.3 10.4 13.5 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 9.9 9.3 7.9 -1.9 33.3 35.8 9.3 12.5 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 9.6 10.1 8.5 -1.8 33.2 37.0 10.0 12.3 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.3 9.1 -2.1 34.2 36.0 11.3 12.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 8.7 8.9 8.1 -2.2 27.0 31.8 9.5 10.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 10.6 11.3 8.1 -2.0 35.2 35.8 10.8 13.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 8.3 8.6 9.1 -2.3 26.7 31.2 9.1 10.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 9.5 8.2 7.7 -2.1 33.3 35.8 8.2 11.6 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 9.2 9.5 9.6 -2.2 27.8 32.5 10.1 11.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.0 7.4 6.3 -1.8 31.2 36.7 7.5 9.7 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 10.2 10.0 9.4 -2.3 29.1 32.9 10.1 13.2 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 9.1 9.1 9.3 -2.1 28.3 32.0 9.5 11.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 9.8 9.8 9.8 -2.1 30.1 34.1 10.0 11.7 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 11.1 11.0 9.1 -2.1 34.2 35.6 10.8 13.5 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 9.1 9.1 8.2 -2.4 25.7 31.0 9.3 12.0 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 9.9 9.6 7.6 -1.7 29.3 36.2 10.5 12.1 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 9.6 9.8 9.0 -2.3 27.2 31.2 10.3 12.2 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 9.2 8.4 7.4 -2.2 30.1 33.4 8.7 11.0 12.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.3 5.5 7.2 -2.0 33.0 36.7 5.5 9.1 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 8.8 9.3 9.5 -2.3 27.1 31.7 9.5 11.1 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------