***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9.6 8.9 10.6 -3.4 20.0 21.7 10.9 13.9 15.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 91 9 0 100 9.5 9.7 10.6 -3.6 20.0 21.2 10.9 13.7 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 10.0 10.0 11.2 -3.2 21.6 23.6 11.3 14.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 2.5 3.7 7.9 -3.0 20.9 23.7 6.2 8.6 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 10.0 9.7 9.5 -3.2 20.6 23.3 12.0 14.4 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 10.5 9.4 8.1 -3.2 20.0 24.1 11.5 14.5 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 90 10 0 100 9.5 9.5 10.3 -3.8 20.7 20.0 10.8 13.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 3.8 4.7 8.6 -2.9 23.8 26.3 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 10.0 10.4 10.5 -3.0 21.6 24.0 12.3 14.2 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 10.0 9.9 9.5 -2.9 23.6 26.2 11.6 13.7 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 10.9 10.4 10.2 -3.0 22.8 25.5 12.0 14.4 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 10.4 10.1 9.1 -3.0 22.8 25.1 11.3 14.3 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 11.1 10.7 9.8 -3.2 21.7 24.1 11.5 14.4 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 10.1 10.2 11.0 -2.8 24.2 27.5 11.0 13.3 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 9.6 9.6 9.9 -2.9 18.9 21.5 12.3 13.0 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 11.6 11.3 9.5 -3.1 22.0 24.2 12.7 15.5 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 90 10 0 100 9.2 9.2 10.1 -3.6 20.0 20.6 10.3 13.2 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 9.5 9.1 9.1 -2.8 24.2 27.7 10.7 12.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 9.5 9.8 10.9 -3.4 20.4 22.5 11.2 13.8 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 7.4 8.0 7.7 -2.6 24.5 28.5 10.3 11.8 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 10.1 10.4 11.1 -3.2 21.3 23.5 11.8 13.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 9.0 9.8 10.6 -3.3 21.0 22.1 10.9 13.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 9.4 9.9 11.3 -3.0 21.9 24.6 10.7 13.4 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 10.5 10.9 10.8 -2.8 23.6 27.1 11.4 14.1 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 9.3 8.7 9.8 -3.4 19.8 22.1 11.3 13.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 10.6 10.5 8.1 -3.4 18.7 21.1 12.5 14.4 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 88 12 0 100 10.0 9.9 10.1 -3.6 20.1 21.2 11.9 14.6 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 9.7 10.0 9.0 -2.9 21.0 24.2 12.1 13.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 6.5 6.6 8.7 -2.6 25.1 28.6 8.0 11.3 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 9.3 9.3 10.7 -3.6 20.5 21.2 11.0 13.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------