***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 3.4 2.8 3.9 -0.4 45.1 44.7 2.5 3.1 3.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.2 3.5 -0.4 45.4 44.2 1.6 2.5 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 4.8 4.1 4.0 -0.3 44.9 45.0 3.4 4.5 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -0.7 -1.6 1.2 -0.4 38.1 42.9 -1.8 -1.2 0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 2.4 1.8 2.2 -0.3 43.5 46.2 1.2 2.2 2.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 46.9 50.4 0.4 1.7 2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.2 3.5 -0.5 45.6 43.9 1.8 2.4 3.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -2.3 0.8 0.1 51.0 51.0 -3.2 -2.3 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 3.2 2.8 2.6 -0.1 48.0 48.2 1.9 2.9 3.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.5 1.3 0.0 49.7 49.8 1.1 2.6 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 2.4 2.0 1.8 -0.1 48.0 48.4 0.9 2.2 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 1.3 0.9 1.3 0.0 49.6 49.4 -0.1 0.9 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.0 49.7 50.8 0.6 2.0 2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.8 2.3 -0.1 47.0 48.7 2.2 2.9 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 2.6 1.9 2.4 -0.4 38.8 43.3 1.8 2.4 3.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 3.2 2.9 1.3 -0.1 48.1 48.7 1.8 3.0 3.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.1 3.4 -0.4 45.6 44.2 1.8 2.3 3.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.0 51.9 50.5 -0.2 0.9 1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 2.9 2.5 3.5 -0.3 45.8 44.7 1.6 2.6 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -3.2 -1.2 -0.2 0.2 56.0 52.6 -3.3 -1.4 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 2.9 2.5 3.5 -0.2 46.6 46.5 1.7 2.7 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 2.4 1.7 3.4 -0.3 46.0 44.8 1.2 2.1 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 2.8 2.4 3.6 -0.2 46.0 46.4 1.6 2.6 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 2.4 2.0 2.2 -0.1 47.9 48.7 0.8 2.2 2.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 3.2 2.4 2.9 -0.5 41.6 43.2 2.0 3.0 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.0 47.4 50.6 1.1 2.0 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 3.4 3.0 3.5 -0.4 44.7 44.3 1.9 3.1 3.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 1.1 0.8 1.4 -0.3 39.8 44.3 0.7 0.9 1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 53.1 51.5 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.2 2.5 3.7 -0.4 45.0 44.0 2.2 3.0 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------