***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 4.3 3.1 3.7 1.9 71.1 66.0 -0.4 1.8 2.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 3.6 3.0 3.3 1.9 69.5 66.5 -0.3 1.1 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 5.4 5.5 3.6 1.8 71.5 65.9 1.3 2.5 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 -0.3 -0.1 0.9 1.7 66.5 64.5 -5.2 -2.8 -0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 2.8 2.4 1.5 1.8 67.2 64.8 -1.4 0.8 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 1.9 2.1 -0.2 1.8 63.7 63.6 -1.5 -0.3 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 3.5 3.1 3.5 1.9 69.3 66.7 -0.5 1.2 2.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 -1.8 -2.1 0.3 2.0 63.7 64.9 -6.7 -2.9 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 3.8 2.8 2.0 1.9 67.9 65.5 0.1 1.5 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 2.4 2.1 0.8 2.0 65.1 65.3 -1.6 0.4 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 2.3 1.8 1.0 1.8 64.0 64.2 -1.7 0.6 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 0.9 1.2 0.6 1.8 64.4 63.6 -2.2 -0.4 1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 1.5 1.5 0.3 1.7 62.7 62.9 -1.8 0.1 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 3.2 3.4 1.8 2.0 68.8 66.3 0.2 1.0 3.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.6 65.7 64.7 0.0 1.0 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 3.1 2.1 0.5 1.7 62.9 63.4 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 3.0 3.3 3.4 1.8 70.4 66.6 -0.3 1.1 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 0.3 0.5 0.3 2.1 64.1 64.6 -2.5 -0.8 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 3.7 2.7 3.3 1.8 70.6 66.4 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 -1.4 -1.9 -0.7 2.3 64.7 65.1 -5.8 -3.1 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 3.5 2.9 3.0 1.9 70.6 65.7 -0.8 1.2 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 2.7 2.9 3.1 1.8 72.1 66.4 -0.2 0.8 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 3.1 3.0 3.2 1.8 72.8 66.6 -0.4 0.9 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 0.6 1.8 1.5 1.9 66.3 65.0 -1.3 0.1 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 3.4 3.0 2.4 1.8 69.6 65.2 -0.8 1.3 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 2.3 2.1 0.3 1.6 63.8 62.6 -1.3 0.1 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 4.7 3.0 3.3 1.9 70.6 65.7 -0.4 1.1 2.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.8 66.2 64.8 -1.9 0.0 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 0.8 0.7 -0.1 2.2 64.4 64.4 -4.0 -1.1 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 4.1 3.7 3.4 1.9 70.1 66.4 -0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------