***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 3.1 3.0 4.3 0.6 60.0 55.5 0.5 2.6 3.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 1.8 1.7 3.9 0.7 56.2 55.4 0.7 1.3 2.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.8 4.1 0.5 58.4 54.6 1.7 3.5 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -1.3 1.1 0.4 55.2 53.3 -3.7 -1.8 0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 1.5 1.3 1.8 0.5 55.1 53.9 0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.6 0.0 0.5 53.9 56.0 -0.2 1.4 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 2.1 2.1 4.0 0.6 56.4 55.5 0.6 1.5 2.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -2.9 -3.4 0.4 0.5 51.8 55.6 -5.6 -3.6 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 2.3 2.4 2.4 0.5 56.7 54.2 0.9 1.7 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.5 53.7 55.0 0.5 1.2 2.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.4 52.4 53.8 0.0 1.7 2.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 52.2 54.7 -0.9 0.9 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 1.8 1.8 0.6 0.4 53.6 55.2 0.2 1.5 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 0.7 2.2 2.1 0.5 53.6 53.5 1.1 2.0 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 2.2 2.1 2.0 0.3 54.2 51.9 1.1 1.9 3.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 2.8 2.6 0.8 0.4 53.0 54.4 0.8 2.4 3.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 2.1 2.0 4.0 0.8 53.4 56.3 0.6 1.5 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -0.7 1.0 0.5 0.5 53.2 55.2 -1.0 0.6 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 2.2 1.7 3.8 0.6 56.8 55.2 0.8 1.6 2.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -0.7 -1.9 -0.5 0.9 55.8 58.4 -3.8 -2.5 -0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 1.8 2.2 3.4 0.5 58.0 54.5 0.5 1.3 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 1.8 1.4 3.6 0.7 53.5 55.8 0.1 1.2 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 1.7 1.7 3.7 0.6 57.2 54.7 0.5 1.3 2.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 1.8 1.8 1.9 0.4 54.9 54.0 0.6 1.5 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 2.5 2.2 2.9 0.5 57.1 54.9 0.5 2.0 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.9 0.6 0.5 53.8 56.5 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 2.8 3.4 3.8 0.6 59.4 55.6 0.1 2.4 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.4 53.4 52.7 -0.3 0.9 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 0.0 -0.5 0.2 0.6 54.3 56.1 -3.1 -0.7 0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.6 4.0 0.6 57.1 55.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------