***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.6 2.0 3.5 -1.6 35.4 35.8 1.9 3.1 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 0.5 1.4 2.9 -1.6 33.0 35.2 1.4 2.2 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.2 3.4 3.6 -1.5 34.1 35.6 3.4 4.6 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -2.4 -1.9 0.8 -1.7 33.9 33.6 -2.0 -0.6 0.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 -0.2 0.6 2.0 -1.5 36.5 36.5 0.3 1.7 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 -0.7 0.5 0.4 -0.8 37.0 43.4 -0.4 1.6 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 0.3 1.9 3.0 -1.6 33.4 35.4 1.8 2.4 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -4.4 -3.5 0.5 -1.1 36.6 39.3 -4.2 -2.1 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.1 2.1 2.2 -1.3 37.4 37.1 1.5 2.5 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 0.5 1.3 0.9 -1.3 36.0 37.2 1.3 1.8 3.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 0.0 1.1 1.7 -1.2 38.0 38.7 0.9 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 -0.6 0.2 1.3 -1.0 37.9 40.8 0.1 1.2 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 -0.6 1.2 1.4 -0.8 38.4 43.5 0.9 1.7 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 1.7 2.1 1.8 -1.5 31.3 36.5 2.4 3.2 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 0.3 1.5 2.3 -1.5 34.5 34.8 1.4 2.2 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 0.8 2.2 1.3 -1.1 36.3 39.8 2.1 3.1 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 0.5 1.5 2.7 -1.7 31.4 34.4 1.6 2.7 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 -1.4 32.9 36.6 -0.1 0.6 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 0.7 2.1 3.0 -1.5 33.5 35.6 2.0 2.5 4.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -4.2 -2.8 -0.6 -1.2 35.9 40.1 -3.0 -1.6 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 0.6 1.4 3.2 -1.5 36.0 36.1 1.3 2.3 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 0.5 1.0 2.8 -1.7 32.4 34.2 1.1 2.1 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 0.6 1.7 3.1 -1.4 33.5 36.4 1.7 2.0 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 0.5 1.3 1.9 -1.4 32.8 36.6 1.3 2.1 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 0.9 1.2 2.6 -1.7 35.3 34.4 1.2 2.3 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 2.9 1.2 1.4 -0.5 40.7 45.6 0.4 2.0 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 0.9 1.8 3.2 -1.6 36.1 36.2 1.8 2.5 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -1.0 -0.4 1.2 -1.5 35.1 35.6 -0.4 0.7 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 -1.4 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 33.3 37.6 -0.5 0.6 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.2 2.1 3.2 -1.6 33.4 35.3 2.1 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------