***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 1.0 0.7 4.1 -2.6 23.6 26.3 2.7 5.1 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 1.4 1.0 3.8 -2.5 23.2 26.6 1.7 4.4 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.8 3.0 4.7 -2.2 24.3 28.1 4.2 6.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 -2.5 -1.1 1.8 -2.2 24.0 26.7 -0.3 0.8 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 0.6 1.1 3.3 -2.0 29.7 30.7 1.3 3.8 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.0 0.8 1.1 -1.5 34.1 33.4 0.7 2.0 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 0.8 1.6 3.6 -2.7 22.4 25.9 1.8 4.1 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.4 -1.1 2.0 -1.2 36.5 36.8 -1.4 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.1 1.6 3.6 -1.6 32.0 33.0 1.7 4.7 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.0 2.3 2.5 -1.3 33.7 35.5 2.3 3.9 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 3.8 2.1 3.3 -1.4 34.1 34.5 2.1 2.9 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 3.1 1.2 2.5 -1.4 34.7 34.9 0.9 2.2 3.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 2.5 1.1 2.5 -1.3 34.0 35.0 1.0 1.4 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.1 2.7 3.7 -1.4 32.1 34.5 2.9 5.1 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.1 1.7 3.4 -1.9 27.5 28.3 2.3 4.6 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.0 2.5 2.6 -1.5 34.3 34.1 2.3 4.1 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 0.7 2.1 3.4 -2.5 24.3 26.2 2.6 4.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 0.1 0.7 2.2 -1.2 31.9 35.6 0.7 2.1 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 1.2 1.6 4.0 -2.3 24.3 27.7 2.1 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 0.4 -1.9 1.1 -1.2 35.2 36.7 -2.4 -0.5 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 1.3 1.3 4.4 -1.9 28.5 30.5 1.8 4.5 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 0.8 1.3 4.0 -2.2 24.8 27.8 2.1 3.2 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.1 4.3 -1.9 28.5 30.5 2.4 4.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 1.5 1.5 3.7 -1.3 31.0 34.3 1.7 3.9 5.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 1.4 1.2 3.6 -2.6 23.0 26.0 1.9 4.5 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 0.7 1.1 1.9 -1.5 33.2 32.8 1.1 2.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 0.6 0.5 3.8 -2.7 24.1 26.8 2.1 4.5 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 -0.2 -0.4 2.3 -1.9 27.4 29.5 0.5 2.8 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.6 0.7 1.7 -1.1 35.1 36.7 0.2 1.9 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 1.6 1.0 4.0 -2.6 22.9 26.4 2.1 4.8 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------