***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 25.8 36.7 41.8 89.4 45.3 44.0 31.0 39.8 54.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 27.7 36.4 36.6 83.9 42.0 40.9 31.4 40.2 53.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 33.8 44.3 40.9 88.1 44.6 43.3 35.9 49.3 59.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 36.7 53.7 43.6 85.9 47.1 43.0 42.0 56.0 65.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 32.6 43.1 44.1 89.0 48.6 43.6 31.8 44.9 61.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 48.6 40.3 44.0 90.1 49.6 46.2 32.3 40.6 55.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 26.5 33.6 37.3 85.9 43.9 42.6 24.4 37.4 49.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 51.1 66.9 48.1 87.5 43.5 42.5 42.9 78.0 95.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 29.0 42.2 46.0 91.6 50.0 45.0 27.9 42.3 59.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 35.0 42.1 48.1 88.8 43.9 43.2 31.7 49.1 55.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 31.2 42.3 43.8 88.5 46.5 43.6 25.5 43.7 52.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 34.0 44.2 44.3 88.4 45.4 43.6 28.7 48.1 62.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 34.5 43.2 45.9 88.1 44.4 43.6 36.7 45.8 67.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 45.3 62.8 49.4 86.6 44.0 41.8 52.0 66.3 81.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 25.5 41.4 42.1 85.0 50.8 44.1 27.5 40.3 63.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 31.6 42.4 43.8 88.9 46.3 44.2 33.2 43.1 49.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 26.6 34.7 36.9 84.2 42.5 41.4 27.2 40.3 52.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 37.9 51.8 51.4 88.7 41.6 43.0 41.6 56.8 70.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 30.8 39.1 37.3 83.8 41.1 41.0 34.5 46.9 59.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 49.2 48.8 59.9 84.9 41.6 40.4 42.2 64.8 82.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 29.6 45.8 44.5 92.1 49.9 45.4 37.1 45.9 52.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 29.1 39.6 37.9 81.4 40.9 39.9 34.0 49.3 57.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 32.1 42.0 39.5 84.7 41.1 41.6 38.7 46.4 56.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 35.3 53.1 47.5 89.2 43.7 43.5 36.9 58.4 68.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 27.6 42.6 46.0 89.3 46.2 44.3 30.0 43.8 49.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 32.7 37.4 44.8 85.9 44.5 42.8 33.7 41.7 65.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 29.5 40.8 43.7 89.6 46.1 44.3 32.7 42.3 49.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 26.7 40.3 41.2 85.5 49.4 43.6 30.5 40.5 60.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 62.9 79.7 54.8 87.5 42.1 42.0 65.0 85.9 101.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 25.9 31.6 37.1 83.8 42.1 41.0 27.5 36.6 52.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------