***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.2 9.9 74.5 49.4 42.5 2.3 5.3 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 5.3 8.3 73.4 49.3 42.3 3.0 5.4 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.2 5.8 9.9 76.5 48.7 43.9 2.1 5.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.4 11.8 11.1 74.1 52.6 43.9 3.7 11.0 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.6 11.4 76.0 53.1 44.7 2.1 6.3 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.3 12.4 86.5 54.1 46.3 3.5 8.3 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.4 6.8 8.6 75.7 50.9 43.7 1.0 6.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.0 22.5 14.4 92.4 57.6 48.1 5.7 19.3 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.1 9.1 12.1 79.1 53.5 46.1 1.8 6.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.6 13.6 85.8 55.6 47.3 2.1 4.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.1 8.6 11.9 81.9 55.0 46.6 2.1 8.0 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.4 6.2 13.0 90.2 57.8 48.3 1.9 4.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.7 5.9 13.1 86.1 53.8 46.6 2.6 5.4 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.6 12.3 79.0 52.2 44.3 5.0 9.0 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.9 6.2 12.3 82.2 56.0 46.3 2.0 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.5 8.2 12.0 81.6 53.7 46.2 0.9 7.0 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.2 6.6 8.0 72.1 51.5 43.2 2.0 6.5 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 13.8 14.9 90.7 56.3 48.2 2.6 8.0 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.8 6.8 8.5 73.7 48.5 42.2 2.2 6.9 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.6 13.7 19.3 98.4 58.0 48.0 3.0 8.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.1 11.1 77.2 53.4 44.7 2.8 7.6 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.6 7.9 8.0 70.4 49.9 41.8 3.5 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.0 6.8 9.2 74.8 48.6 42.7 2.0 7.5 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.1 12.4 83.4 53.4 46.2 2.5 7.2 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.7 11.1 73.6 50.9 41.7 2.1 5.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.9 13.5 91.6 57.0 47.5 4.1 7.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.2 10.3 74.0 48.9 41.9 1.8 5.6 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.3 6.7 11.3 78.6 54.5 45.5 1.8 6.6 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.8 25.1 16.6 95.3 57.1 48.3 6.2 15.7 28.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.3 5.9 8.8 74.3 48.2 42.3 1.8 6.1 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------