***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.4 10.9 9.6 82.1 54.5 43.8 6.0 9.9 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.7 9.7 86.9 56.3 45.5 2.8 8.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.1 9.8 85.5 55.4 44.5 7.3 8.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.0 19.1 10.8 88.4 58.1 46.3 3.7 15.0 21.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.2 14.6 10.2 84.6 55.8 43.8 5.0 12.3 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.0 17.2 11.1 91.0 57.8 47.6 5.7 11.8 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.2 9.8 9.9 89.9 57.3 46.1 4.0 6.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 25.3 20.6 10.8 81.9 55.4 43.2 5.6 18.0 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.9 12.5 11.1 89.5 58.0 45.6 4.7 11.4 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.5 13.8 11.3 85.4 56.1 43.8 6.2 10.4 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.9 15.4 9.7 82.4 54.8 44.0 5.9 14.6 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.3 18.3 10.0 82.9 54.6 44.0 2.8 17.4 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 21.8 19.2 11.3 89.1 55.0 46.3 7.4 18.5 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 20.1 18.2 12.9 88.0 57.3 45.2 5.9 15.6 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.8 11.4 11.9 95.2 62.8 48.3 3.6 7.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.3 19.6 10.3 86.4 55.5 46.1 6.1 13.0 21.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.8 11.3 9.8 90.0 56.9 46.4 2.6 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.6 16.8 12.1 85.2 56.1 43.5 5.4 14.5 23.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.3 12.1 9.6 85.0 56.3 45.2 4.0 8.8 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.8 24.4 14.2 80.4 54.7 41.8 7.6 21.0 28.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.3 12.3 10.5 89.4 59.3 45.2 4.1 10.6 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.7 10.0 85.5 56.2 45.9 3.6 9.4 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.7 11.5 10.1 84.8 57.7 45.6 3.6 9.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.2 16.0 11.7 88.5 57.9 45.0 3.7 8.6 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.6 13.0 10.6 83.9 55.2 44.4 3.3 11.6 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 19.6 16.1 11.8 92.9 56.4 46.1 8.4 14.8 23.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.3 10.1 82.7 54.8 44.2 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.1 16.7 10.6 90.2 59.8 46.7 3.7 8.0 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.3 26.9 13.0 83.5 55.1 43.2 9.6 22.0 30.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.9 9.5 83.2 54.9 44.4 3.8 7.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------