***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.6 12.8 98.0 57.2 49.2 2.8 6.7 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.9 8.7 10.1 82.6 53.2 45.3 2.2 6.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.6 12.1 93.4 57.2 46.2 2.6 8.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.3 14.6 13.5 97.4 63.0 44.8 1.8 8.9 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.3 11.5 12.6 94.9 59.7 40.6 1.8 6.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.0 13.5 12.6 98.2 60.8 45.8 1.0 6.0 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.5 9.7 79.5 52.5 45.0 1.1 7.9 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.1 17.7 12.8 88.1 56.9 43.7 3.9 13.3 23.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.6 11.6 13.1 99.7 61.5 43.8 1.1 8.3 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.4 14.0 12.7 90.4 57.2 41.6 1.6 7.8 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.9 12.9 95.6 60.0 44.0 0.7 6.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.1 12.7 93.4 58.5 45.6 1.2 6.6 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.7 11.9 12.8 92.9 57.6 42.8 0.6 11.5 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.9 17.3 13.8 88.9 55.4 45.5 4.7 10.1 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 9.3 12.9 96.3 64.3 46.9 0.7 6.2 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.8 9.8 13.0 98.8 60.1 45.2 1.5 6.0 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.8 6.0 10.0 78.8 52.9 44.0 1.5 5.3 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.1 13.5 89.2 55.9 41.7 2.1 7.4 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.8 10.7 86.0 54.1 46.2 1.5 6.9 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.6 10.3 15.3 79.7 51.5 40.1 4.0 10.2 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.9 11.5 13.2 101.7 62.5 45.5 2.5 6.4 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.3 5.9 10.9 81.3 50.6 44.9 1.7 5.6 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.7 9.7 11.5 88.0 55.7 46.6 2.1 8.0 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.7 12.0 13.3 92.4 56.3 44.0 2.0 7.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.1 7.8 13.6 95.3 58.4 45.5 1.2 4.8 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.8 10.6 12.3 84.8 54.5 42.5 0.2 6.6 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 7.0 13.1 95.5 56.4 48.2 1.7 5.7 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.4 9.2 12.6 97.3 63.6 45.0 0.5 2.9 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.0 12.3 14.7 87.3 54.7 41.8 4.2 11.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.6 10.4 84.2 54.4 45.8 2.5 6.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------