***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9.0 11.4 9.5 109.1 66.9 58.0 0.9 8.2 11.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 6.5 9.9 8.5 95.4 63.0 55.1 0.4 4.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.8 13.1 9.1 100.4 64.4 55.3 0.6 5.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.2 10.6 8.1 84.6 64.1 50.5 1.3 4.9 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.8 10.9 10.0 107.2 68.5 56.0 0.4 4.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.4 7.8 83.1 61.9 51.0 0.1 2.6 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 6.0 10.0 9.1 102.9 67.0 58.2 0.2 4.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.9 12.7 10.0 86.4 61.3 49.2 1.3 8.6 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.3 9.4 9.7 103.6 65.5 55.0 0.0 5.4 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.3 10.8 10.6 95.8 62.6 52.0 0.6 7.6 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.2 9.3 95.9 65.4 52.7 0.3 6.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.7 12.9 8.6 85.6 64.0 49.6 0.4 5.9 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.0 9.1 8.8 83.6 62.4 50.9 0.1 3.8 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.8 14.7 10.4 92.1 61.9 51.9 3.8 10.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.0 3.2 5.1 58.4 58.9 44.4 0.2 2.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.1 8.3 8.7 89.8 64.5 52.2 0.0 3.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.5 7.6 9.1 99.0 63.9 56.4 0.2 2.7 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.5 10.8 89.9 59.6 49.9 2.9 8.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.5 8.4 8.4 92.4 61.7 53.4 0.6 4.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.3 11.1 78.3 56.5 45.7 1.0 7.2 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.4 10.0 9.7 105.2 64.7 56.5 0.3 7.5 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.7 8.4 8.9 89.4 58.4 52.6 0.2 1.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.0 8.7 93.0 62.6 52.6 1.9 5.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.2 13.4 10.1 93.7 62.2 52.1 1.7 9.1 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 5.6 8.8 10.7 112.2 67.0 59.7 0.6 3.9 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.0 3.8 7.1 70.2 57.6 46.5 0.3 3.0 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 7.6 13.4 10.2 114.5 68.0 60.1 0.4 6.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.5 6.7 73.0 61.8 47.3 0.4 2.3 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.8 18.5 10.6 81.9 57.2 47.7 3.3 15.5 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.8 10.1 8.4 97.2 64.2 55.6 0.8 4.3 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------