***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 10.1 10.2 10.4 -0.9 31.1 39.2 10.3 11.2 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 9.2 10.0 10.5 -0.7 32.5 40.9 10.0 10.7 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 10.3 10.5 10.8 -0.8 32.9 41.0 10.5 11.4 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.3 4.5 7.6 -0.9 33.3 40.1 4.5 5.2 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 10.3 10.6 8.7 -1.1 31.3 37.8 10.6 11.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 9.7 10.1 7.7 -1.2 31.2 36.5 10.1 11.4 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 9.1 9.5 10.3 -0.9 30.3 39.3 9.7 10.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 3.3 3.8 8.1 -0.9 33.6 39.9 3.7 4.4 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.2 9.7 -0.9 34.5 39.9 10.9 12.2 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.8 10.6 8.8 -1.0 34.1 39.7 10.6 11.5 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 10.5 10.9 9.0 -1.0 32.3 38.8 10.9 12.0 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 10.2 11.1 8.5 -0.9 34.2 40.1 11.0 11.7 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.0 8.5 -1.1 32.2 37.5 11.1 11.9 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.3 10.3 -0.7 39.0 42.9 10.7 12.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 9.1 8.6 8.8 -0.7 33.4 40.7 8.6 10.3 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.5 8.6 -1.1 31.5 37.9 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 8.7 9.3 10.1 -0.9 30.8 39.1 9.5 10.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.7 9.4 8.7 -0.9 34.9 40.7 9.3 10.2 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.5 10.8 -0.6 36.2 42.6 10.1 11.0 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.0 8.0 7.0 -1.0 31.8 39.4 8.1 9.0 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 10.5 10.2 10.2 -1.0 31.9 38.8 10.4 11.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 9.2 9.8 10.3 -0.8 33.7 40.6 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.8 11.1 -0.5 42.3 44.8 9.8 11.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.5 10.1 -0.8 37.4 42.0 10.6 12.2 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 9.5 9.9 9.0 -1.1 29.5 37.4 10.0 10.4 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 9.9 10.6 8.0 -0.9 33.0 38.8 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 10.1 10.5 9.8 -1.0 29.1 37.7 10.8 11.3 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 9.6 9.1 8.2 -0.8 33.4 40.4 9.1 10.8 11.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.3 7.5 8.1 -1.0 32.9 40.1 7.5 8.1 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 9.4 9.9 10.6 -0.7 32.7 41.0 9.9 10.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------