***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.0 7.4 8.5 0.0 43.7 49.0 6.4 8.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 5.5 7.8 8.6 0.2 46.5 50.6 6.3 8.3 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.8 9.4 8.9 0.1 44.3 49.7 7.4 10.0 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.5 5.7 -0.3 41.9 47.2 1.9 3.7 6.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.3 9.8 6.7 -0.2 42.8 47.2 6.6 10.4 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.9 6.4 -0.1 49.7 49.7 6.8 9.0 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.5 8.1 8.5 0.2 47.6 50.3 6.1 8.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 3.4 2.5 6.5 0.1 49.5 50.2 0.7 2.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.5 10.7 7.6 -0.1 45.0 48.2 8.1 10.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.1 10.2 7.1 0.1 48.4 49.5 6.5 10.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.8 6.9 -0.2 44.3 48.2 7.6 10.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.5 6.7 0.0 47.5 49.4 7.1 10.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.7 9.9 6.5 0.0 48.0 49.5 8.0 10.6 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.6 10.2 8.5 0.3 48.0 51.1 8.5 10.5 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.2 5.7 6.3 -0.4 41.2 47.1 4.7 7.4 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.9 10.4 6.6 -0.2 44.6 48.4 8.0 10.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.4 7.3 8.4 0.2 45.2 50.0 6.1 8.2 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.7 7.4 0.2 49.5 50.5 5.2 7.8 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.4 8.7 8.8 0.3 46.7 51.0 6.6 8.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.3 5.8 0.4 49.8 51.7 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.4 10.2 8.1 -0.1 44.1 48.0 7.0 10.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.9 7.3 8.5 0.2 44.7 50.6 7.0 9.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.4 8.4 9.2 0.4 47.3 51.5 6.9 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.0 10.7 8.3 0.2 48.2 50.4 7.9 10.8 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.8 7.0 -0.1 44.5 48.3 6.2 9.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.7 9.2 6.5 0.2 52.0 51.5 7.2 9.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.2 9.2 8.0 0.1 45.3 49.2 7.6 9.5 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.9 6.8 6.0 -0.4 41.1 46.9 6.1 7.9 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.8 6.9 0.3 49.6 50.7 4.2 5.8 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.8 8.0 8.6 0.2 46.4 50.6 6.4 8.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------