***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 8.3 9.1 9.4 -0.7 36.9 45.7 8.6 10.3 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.1 8.4 9.6 -0.5 38.6 47.4 6.8 9.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.2 9.9 -0.6 38.8 47.0 7.8 10.9 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.2 2.8 6.7 -1.0 33.0 42.2 2.8 5.3 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.3 8.8 7.8 -0.9 35.2 42.8 8.6 10.3 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.9 9.3 7.2 -0.8 36.4 45.2 9.1 10.0 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 7.2 8.4 9.5 -0.5 38.9 46.8 6.3 9.7 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 0.8 2.0 7.5 -0.5 37.6 47.0 1.9 2.7 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.8 9.5 8.6 -0.8 37.7 44.3 8.9 10.8 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.3 9.2 8.1 -0.7 37.5 45.8 8.6 10.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.5 7.9 -0.8 35.3 44.3 9.2 11.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.9 8.9 7.9 -0.5 37.5 46.9 8.5 10.2 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 8.5 9.5 7.6 -0.6 36.7 46.5 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.1 9.6 9.3 -0.5 40.8 48.1 8.2 10.6 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 7.5 7.6 7.3 -1.0 32.1 41.4 7.7 8.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.1 9.6 7.7 -0.7 35.5 44.9 9.4 11.3 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 6.7 7.8 9.3 -0.5 37.9 46.8 6.7 9.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.6 8.8 8.3 -0.4 39.3 48.2 7.7 9.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.5 8.6 9.8 -0.4 39.0 48.0 7.3 10.1 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 6.0 6.6 -0.3 40.1 49.2 5.5 7.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.5 8.8 9.1 -0.8 37.1 44.2 8.2 10.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.9 8.4 9.4 -0.5 37.4 47.3 7.3 9.7 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.6 8.8 10.1 -0.4 39.8 48.7 7.2 9.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 8.6 10.0 9.2 -0.5 40.2 48.2 8.7 10.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.9 8.0 7.8 -0.9 36.1 43.3 7.3 9.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.4 7.6 -0.3 40.6 49.3 9.1 9.8 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 8.4 9.1 8.9 -0.8 37.3 45.2 8.3 10.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.6 7.1 -1.0 33.0 42.3 8.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 5.4 7.7 -0.4 38.8 48.5 4.6 6.4 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 7.5 8.2 9.6 -0.5 38.5 47.2 6.8 10.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------