***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.8 12.0 -0.2 48.4 50.2 11.1 11.9 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.4 12.1 -0.1 50.5 50.0 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.2 12.5 -0.1 50.0 50.7 10.8 12.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.9 5.7 9.1 -0.2 46.4 50.0 4.9 6.0 6.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.2 10.6 -0.3 44.5 49.7 10.5 12.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 9.6 11.1 9.6 -0.2 43.9 50.2 10.1 11.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.0 12.0 -0.2 49.4 49.7 10.1 11.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.3 9.7 -0.2 45.1 50.4 3.5 5.0 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.7 12.9 11.4 -0.3 45.8 49.8 10.8 13.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.8 11.5 10.5 -0.3 45.7 49.8 9.9 12.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.5 12.3 10.9 -0.2 45.0 49.9 10.7 12.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 9.9 11.9 10.3 -0.1 45.5 51.0 10.0 12.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 10.0 11.8 10.6 -0.2 44.8 49.3 10.5 12.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.4 11.7 -0.2 49.9 50.5 10.8 12.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.2 10.4 -0.2 42.5 49.5 9.5 11.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.7 10.5 -0.2 44.5 49.8 11.3 13.0 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.7 11.6 -0.4 49.3 48.2 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.9 10.2 -0.3 46.2 50.2 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.4 12.4 -0.1 52.1 51.0 10.7 11.2 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.3 8.8 8.6 -0.2 45.0 50.4 7.3 9.6 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.7 12.0 -0.3 47.1 49.3 10.4 13.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.5 11.6 -0.4 49.8 48.3 9.7 11.5 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.8 12.6 0.1 53.8 52.4 10.6 11.4 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.3 11.7 -0.2 48.2 50.5 11.2 13.4 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.3 10.8 -0.3 46.8 49.5 9.9 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.6 9.9 0.0 45.1 51.4 10.8 11.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.0 11.6 -0.2 48.0 49.9 11.0 12.2 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 9.4 10.6 9.8 -0.2 44.9 49.8 9.8 11.0 12.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.0 9.6 -0.3 45.6 49.9 5.7 8.9 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.4 12.3 -0.1 50.8 50.7 10.3 11.3 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------