***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 11.0 10.5 11.5 -2.7 23.4 26.4 11.8 14.5 16.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 10.7 10.6 11.8 -2.6 24.8 27.1 12.2 13.8 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 11.2 10.7 12.1 -2.5 27.7 28.1 12.2 14.3 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.0 6.4 8.8 -1.9 32.3 33.2 6.7 9.1 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 10.9 10.7 9.9 -2.9 24.1 26.0 12.5 14.8 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 9.5 10.4 7.6 -3.7 21.1 22.8 12.5 14.2 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 10.4 9.8 11.3 -2.9 20.8 24.6 11.5 13.6 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 4.9 5.1 8.5 -3.1 24.3 25.3 5.9 7.5 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 11.6 12.3 11.1 -2.5 28.4 28.0 12.7 14.8 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 11.2 10.9 9.6 -3.0 26.7 26.5 11.6 14.2 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 11.4 11.0 10.4 -2.9 25.8 26.2 12.5 14.8 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 10.7 11.6 9.2 -2.9 24.4 25.8 12.3 14.0 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 10.8 10.0 9.5 -3.6 19.7 22.0 12.9 14.2 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 10.9 10.3 11.7 -2.4 28.5 29.3 10.9 13.6 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.3 12.8 11.3 -1.3 37.4 37.2 12.5 14.0 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 11.9 11.1 9.4 -3.3 22.5 23.9 13.5 15.1 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 9.9 9.5 11.1 -2.8 21.3 24.3 11.1 12.9 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 10.0 9.8 9.0 -3.2 23.9 25.2 10.8 13.0 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 10.9 11.0 12.1 -2.3 28.0 29.3 11.9 13.9 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 8.2 7.1 6.9 -3.8 19.0 21.7 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 11.3 11.4 11.7 -2.7 25.1 26.8 12.5 14.3 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 10.6 10.8 11.6 -2.5 24.6 26.5 11.0 13.4 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 10.9 11.5 12.5 -2.0 31.4 32.1 11.6 13.2 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 11.1 10.7 11.3 -2.7 26.6 27.6 12.2 14.2 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 10.1 10.9 10.3 -2.9 23.4 25.3 12.3 13.8 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 10.9 10.0 7.9 -3.4 18.8 21.6 13.2 14.8 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 10.9 10.0 10.7 -3.1 21.0 23.2 12.4 14.6 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.9 12.7 9.9 -1.8 34.8 35.1 12.4 14.1 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 7.4 6.6 8.4 -3.4 21.7 23.7 7.5 11.6 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 10.6 10.7 11.8 -2.6 25.1 27.2 11.8 13.9 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------