***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 3.3 1.7 3.2 -0.4 44.1 46.2 1.4 2.7 3.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 2.2 1.6 3.0 -0.3 43.2 46.8 0.6 1.7 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 4.3 3.3 3.2 -0.3 42.4 46.7 1.8 3.9 4.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -1.7 0.4 -0.4 38.3 46.0 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 1.6 0.9 0.9 -0.4 40.4 46.0 0.6 1.2 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 1.8 0.7 -1.0 -0.4 40.5 45.6 0.2 1.5 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 2.5 0.9 3.0 -0.4 43.0 46.0 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -3.7 -0.6 -0.3 41.6 46.2 -4.4 -2.9 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 2.6 1.4 1.4 -0.3 41.7 46.6 1.1 2.0 3.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 2.0 1.3 0.0 -0.3 41.9 46.3 0.7 1.4 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 2.1 1.2 0.3 -0.4 40.0 45.3 0.6 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 1.8 1.0 -0.3 -0.4 40.9 45.5 -0.8 1.6 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 1.9 0.9 -0.6 -0.5 42.2 44.5 0.4 1.5 2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.2 1.3 -0.2 45.4 47.5 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 2.1 1.5 1.4 -0.4 36.4 46.3 1.2 1.7 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 2.9 1.7 -0.2 -0.5 40.7 45.1 1.1 2.6 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.5 1.4 2.9 -0.3 42.4 46.7 0.7 1.9 3.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 0.9 0.2 -0.7 -0.2 42.8 47.0 -0.9 0.5 1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 2.2 1.3 3.0 -0.3 44.0 47.2 0.9 1.6 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -1.4 -2.6 -1.8 -0.3 41.1 47.0 -3.0 -1.8 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 2.4 1.0 2.5 -0.3 42.5 46.9 0.7 1.9 3.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 2.0 0.9 2.8 -0.3 43.6 47.3 0.1 1.4 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 2.0 1.3 2.9 -0.2 45.9 47.5 0.7 1.6 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 1.9 1.2 0.9 -0.3 43.1 46.8 0.3 1.4 2.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 2.8 1.4 1.9 -0.4 40.9 46.4 0.8 2.3 3.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 1.9 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 39.2 44.8 0.5 1.5 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 2.8 1.5 2.7 -0.5 42.4 45.7 0.4 2.2 4.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 1.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.4 37.1 45.7 -0.3 0.5 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 0.3 -0.5 -1.0 -0.3 42.6 46.7 -1.3 -0.3 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 2.6 1.8 3.1 -0.3 43.6 46.5 0.9 2.0 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------