***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 32.6 36.6 40.2 89.1 44.5 40.8 31.7 40.6 53.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 27.4 41.8 40.3 97.8 54.1 45.3 33.8 40.6 45.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 34.5 48.0 41.3 91.9 47.0 41.7 38.0 49.5 59.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 38.2 53.1 43.7 87.7 47.1 42.2 40.1 55.0 64.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 33.5 42.5 41.1 85.2 44.4 40.8 33.9 48.3 56.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 30.9 37.7 36.9 80.1 45.5 39.8 32.3 40.9 55.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 26.1 41.0 40.4 99.5 56.1 46.3 29.2 37.2 45.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 45.8 69.1 46.0 87.8 46.6 42.7 48.4 77.4 95.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 29.1 39.6 43.3 88.1 47.3 41.9 30.8 42.6 58.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 33.6 47.1 46.4 88.9 46.8 42.5 33.5 49.9 57.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 28.9 41.2 40.4 84.0 44.2 40.7 30.4 44.3 52.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 32.8 42.7 40.4 84.6 46.8 41.5 29.4 44.0 62.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 34.5 44.8 39.0 79.5 44.4 39.1 37.2 46.7 67.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 47.5 64.5 51.1 92.4 47.7 41.4 54.0 66.4 81.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 25.3 42.8 43.7 88.1 51.8 42.5 28.5 41.1 62.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 32.5 41.1 38.1 80.8 43.4 39.6 35.7 42.9 47.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 47.6 42.9 41.3 100.7 56.8 48.0 29.0 41.0 47.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 40.1 55.0 50.5 91.9 47.9 43.1 44.1 56.7 70.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 31.1 48.4 40.7 95.8 52.8 44.0 36.3 47.3 59.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 45.8 60.3 62.5 95.1 50.2 45.4 46.5 60.3 82.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 32.3 44.5 41.8 88.5 47.5 41.3 40.4 45.0 52.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 36.1 51.7 43.2 99.1 54.9 47.5 32.4 50.8 59.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 35.5 50.9 42.2 92.9 50.6 41.8 40.2 50.1 56.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 36.8 56.6 46.6 91.0 47.3 41.6 37.7 58.3 70.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 28.1 41.7 43.1 85.9 44.3 39.9 29.9 43.4 51.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 34.7 37.5 40.8 82.8 44.2 41.0 34.8 41.4 65.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 31.0 43.0 41.7 88.7 44.6 41.0 34.2 43.5 47.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 25.7 39.3 40.5 86.2 48.0 41.9 30.8 40.5 59.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 62.8 87.7 55.7 95.2 52.0 44.9 64.6 86.0 101.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 25.8 38.2 40.5 96.4 51.3 44.0 31.3 36.9 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------