***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 8.9 12.3 96.4 56.7 46.6 2.3 6.0 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.8 7.3 10.4 88.9 57.3 46.4 2.2 5.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.1 12.6 98.0 60.4 48.2 2.1 6.8 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.4 13.6 15.3 107.3 62.7 50.4 2.8 10.5 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.0 15.4 15.4 112.1 63.5 51.4 2.5 6.3 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.1 14.2 103.7 59.3 49.9 4.0 12.4 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.5 10.3 90.8 57.6 46.8 1.4 6.8 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.1 29.0 16.7 112.5 64.2 51.3 4.8 19.5 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.4 15.5 15.7 110.8 65.5 51.7 1.3 9.4 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.3 16.1 16.7 112.3 66.2 52.0 2.5 7.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.5 17.3 15.5 113.6 64.5 51.4 2.4 7.4 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.9 15.1 111.0 62.2 51.0 1.8 6.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.5 14.3 14.8 103.6 57.8 49.6 2.6 7.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.8 12.0 14.7 92.8 57.8 49.2 4.9 8.8 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.0 11.6 15.3 103.3 63.6 49.1 2.9 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.9 14.5 106.1 60.7 49.4 1.0 8.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.7 9.5 82.0 55.1 45.7 2.0 7.5 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 15.3 16.7 106.4 63.9 51.4 2.9 8.9 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.3 10.8 89.9 57.5 46.9 2.7 7.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 14.1 20.5 107.7 61.3 50.4 2.1 10.8 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.5 11.1 14.3 106.3 61.7 49.9 2.5 8.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.4 10.4 83.6 55.4 45.9 3.4 8.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.5 11.6 90.0 57.5 47.8 3.5 6.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.6 14.8 15.0 101.2 61.7 50.6 2.3 7.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.0 9.3 14.3 102.1 59.1 48.8 1.9 5.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.4 15.3 15.2 107.2 59.9 50.3 2.6 10.5 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.3 6.1 13.0 98.4 57.3 47.4 1.8 4.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.0 16.4 14.7 105.7 63.7 49.6 2.8 6.6 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.4 28.7 17.5 104.6 62.3 50.8 5.0 13.5 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.0 11.0 92.3 58.2 46.9 1.8 5.8 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------