***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.6 11.5 107.5 61.3 48.8 3.6 9.0 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.2 15.5 11.4 114.9 64.4 49.9 2.6 7.9 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.7 20.1 13.0 119.3 65.4 49.3 6.4 9.1 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.5 18.0 12.0 102.0 62.2 46.7 4.3 9.1 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.7 20.0 12.7 109.5 66.6 49.1 5.4 10.4 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.4 18.5 10.8 102.0 61.7 49.5 3.2 12.1 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.6 12.4 11.0 114.6 62.7 49.7 3.3 5.8 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.0 28.6 14.1 114.5 67.4 49.7 11.2 15.1 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.7 15.2 13.9 115.0 68.2 49.9 5.7 10.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.1 21.9 14.8 117.3 68.1 50.2 6.8 9.8 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.6 20.7 12.4 109.9 65.8 49.5 8.1 11.7 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.6 26.1 12.2 110.6 66.1 49.2 3.6 12.9 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.4 20.8 11.1 100.4 63.0 47.9 5.9 10.4 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.9 21.5 17.3 126.9 64.8 50.2 10.6 15.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 17.6 12.6 105.5 63.0 47.1 3.2 7.7 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.0 21.0 10.9 100.6 62.6 47.7 4.7 9.5 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.4 12.9 10.8 113.0 64.2 50.2 2.7 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 23.0 16.2 120.9 67.2 50.4 7.0 12.5 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.1 17.2 12.0 115.9 64.5 49.8 3.8 8.9 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.0 24.8 17.9 111.7 64.7 49.4 7.6 18.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.4 16.7 13.0 114.1 66.7 48.8 3.0 9.9 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.4 11.1 108.5 62.1 50.4 2.7 9.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.1 17.0 13.2 117.7 63.8 48.7 4.4 11.3 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.0 18.5 15.8 126.4 67.3 50.2 5.1 11.8 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.2 12.4 12.0 101.8 59.4 47.2 3.1 8.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 16.8 14.2 11.5 100.0 59.4 46.9 10.6 12.6 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.2 11.4 103.0 59.5 48.0 4.8 7.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.1 17.2 11.6 104.6 63.8 47.7 3.1 8.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.3 29.5 17.0 119.6 65.5 50.3 10.7 21.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.5 13.0 11.8 115.9 63.3 50.0 3.6 8.5 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------