***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.0 7.4 7.8 68.0 50.1 39.8 5.2 7.3 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.6 14.0 8.4 79.0 56.5 43.8 2.8 10.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.3 7.4 63.6 48.8 39.7 3.4 7.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.3 10.9 7.1 54.9 50.4 37.7 1.8 10.6 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.2 6.8 53.6 45.6 37.7 2.6 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.6 7.5 7.0 57.5 50.8 40.5 1.1 7.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.5 8.7 82.1 57.3 42.8 3.1 8.9 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.8 8.2 7.3 52.9 43.2 39.2 3.9 15.4 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.4 5.5 6.4 49.4 43.5 35.1 1.9 7.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.4 5.2 7.2 53.1 43.0 37.9 2.0 11.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.6 6.2 7.2 54.8 45.3 39.2 0.7 6.9 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.2 4.5 6.5 50.4 43.5 38.3 1.7 6.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.7 8.3 7.2 54.3 46.8 38.9 1.5 10.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.7 9.8 8.6 59.0 48.0 38.9 4.7 10.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.9 7.3 56.8 52.4 39.2 2.3 6.6 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.2 6.5 6.8 53.3 47.8 38.6 1.5 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.8 11.5 9.1 82.9 57.1 44.1 2.0 6.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 7.2 7.9 56.1 44.8 38.3 2.9 7.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.2 8.0 73.0 53.3 42.3 1.5 9.2 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 8.5 11.2 64.0 49.8 42.6 5.9 8.6 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.7 6.7 54.4 44.7 36.4 3.0 7.0 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.6 12.5 9.2 78.2 55.8 42.8 1.8 10.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.3 7.7 64.7 48.4 39.2 2.1 9.6 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.1 5.9 7.5 55.3 45.8 37.6 2.0 8.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.0 8.6 65.7 49.4 39.0 1.2 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.7 7.0 7.0 52.6 46.5 37.4 1.7 8.6 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.8 8.6 71.9 51.6 40.1 2.2 5.7 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.9 5.1 6.7 54.9 51.4 39.0 0.9 4.5 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.5 8.8 9.2 60.5 46.7 39.8 5.4 9.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.6 11.8 8.0 74.5 54.5 41.8 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------