***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 8.0 11.5 8.5 84.4 63.1 51.8 1.4 6.6 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.4 9.2 10.1 112.6 66.9 58.4 1.0 3.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 7.0 13.4 8.3 87.0 63.3 52.9 0.8 5.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 6.7 8.2 9.3 85.4 61.4 52.8 2.3 4.8 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.7 6.2 60.9 55.3 44.3 0.5 4.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.2 2.6 4.9 50.8 50.0 42.7 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 5.1 9.7 10.5 114.8 66.9 57.8 0.5 3.8 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 8.4 8.3 7.9 69.2 54.8 46.3 1.4 6.7 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.4 8.5 7.2 72.9 57.6 47.4 0.7 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.8 7.6 69.2 54.5 45.2 0.6 6.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.3 5.9 5.4 52.9 51.7 42.2 0.3 5.5 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 7.0 5.4 6.6 64.4 54.1 45.6 0.7 5.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.2 6.0 56.7 51.0 42.0 0.2 4.7 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.3 10.5 93.5 58.9 52.2 3.0 10.5 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 3.3 2.8 8.5 84.5 60.8 54.1 0.5 2.0 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.0 3.4 5.9 59.5 54.6 44.3 0.1 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 5.9 10.7 11.8 134.3 70.0 63.1 0.9 3.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.1 9.6 82.2 57.3 49.1 2.5 7.5 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.3 11.6 9.8 108.3 66.4 57.8 1.1 4.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 7.1 8.4 12.9 98.5 62.0 55.3 1.0 5.1 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.5 9.3 7.8 77.1 61.0 49.1 0.8 7.2 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 11.7 16.7 12.5 137.1 72.0 64.5 0.7 3.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 6.6 8.1 9.6 103.1 65.0 56.0 1.9 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.5 8.4 80.2 57.3 48.9 1.7 9.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.1 5.9 8.2 72.5 56.8 47.9 2.2 4.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 5.1 3.5 7.1 68.9 55.3 48.7 0.4 2.9 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.4 9.7 8.7 80.8 59.8 50.4 0.6 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 4.1 4.1 7.4 76.6 57.9 50.9 0.4 2.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 15.0 17.4 11.9 97.3 61.2 53.8 3.3 12.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 5.8 9.3 9.7 105.4 66.0 57.0 1.0 3.9 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------