***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 12.8 14.5 13.7 2.2 85.6 77.2 10.4 11.4 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 12.0 14.0 13.8 2.2 86.6 77.5 10.0 10.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 13.0 14.8 14.1 2.2 84.5 76.6 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 7.2 7.8 10.8 2.0 82.1 75.7 4.6 5.6 7.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 13.2 14.0 12.1 2.0 81.6 74.5 10.8 11.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 12.9 13.8 11.5 2.3 82.0 76.4 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 11.9 13.4 13.7 2.3 86.2 77.6 9.9 10.6 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 5.7 6.1 11.3 1.9 78.4 72.9 3.8 4.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 14.0 14.8 12.9 2.0 80.0 74.0 11.2 12.1 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.8 12.1 2.0 77.7 72.5 10.7 11.6 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 13.3 14.1 12.4 2.1 79.2 74.2 11.1 11.8 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 13.6 14.5 11.8 2.1 80.2 74.9 11.1 11.9 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 13.6 14.0 12.2 2.2 79.7 76.3 11.1 12.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 14.1 15.2 13.3 2.0 79.2 71.9 10.8 12.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 12.2 13.0 12.1 2.4 88.0 81.5 8.7 10.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 14.0 14.7 12.2 2.2 81.1 75.9 11.8 12.9 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 11.5 12.7 13.4 2.1 85.0 76.7 9.5 10.1 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 12.1 12.8 11.9 1.9 76.6 71.1 9.5 10.5 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 12.2 14.7 13.9 2.2 86.2 76.8 10.2 11.1 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.4 11.0 10.2 1.8 77.3 71.8 8.2 9.2 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 13.4 14.2 13.4 2.0 80.3 74.4 10.7 11.7 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 12.2 13.9 13.3 2.0 83.3 74.8 9.8 10.9 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 12.4 14.4 14.1 2.2 85.4 75.9 9.9 11.1 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 13.9 14.8 13.2 2.0 78.8 72.3 11.1 12.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.9 12.3 2.0 82.0 75.5 10.1 10.6 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 13.2 14.4 11.6 2.5 88.9 81.0 10.8 11.6 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 12.9 14.4 13.2 2.2 84.9 76.6 10.9 11.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 12.5 13.2 11.5 2.2 83.8 77.4 9.3 10.8 12.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 9.9 10.5 11.3 1.8 75.9 70.4 7.6 8.3 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 12.1 14.2 13.8 2.3 87.1 77.9 10.0 10.7 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------