***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.7 9.1 0.6 54.1 55.5 6.2 8.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.0 9.0 0.6 55.0 55.2 6.5 8.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.3 9.3 0.5 52.6 54.6 7.1 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.5 6.7 0.7 53.5 55.7 1.2 4.2 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.5 10.2 7.4 0.5 52.1 53.8 6.5 9.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.7 7.2 0.8 52.5 56.4 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.8 9.0 0.6 53.2 54.9 6.3 8.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -0.5 2.4 6.8 0.3 49.4 52.9 1.0 2.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.9 10.3 8.1 0.4 51.5 53.2 8.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.4 9.5 7.4 0.3 49.4 52.6 7.3 9.6 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.4 9.9 7.4 0.4 50.3 53.5 7.9 9.9 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.5 9.5 7.2 0.4 50.0 53.7 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.9 10.1 7.1 0.6 50.0 54.8 7.4 10.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.6 10.5 8.3 0.2 49.4 51.9 8.4 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.9 7.7 1.0 57.0 58.0 4.6 7.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.4 10.4 7.4 0.6 51.6 54.8 7.9 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.1 8.8 0.5 54.0 54.5 6.1 8.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.4 8.1 7.3 0.2 47.8 51.9 5.6 8.1 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.2 9.2 0.5 54.4 55.0 7.0 8.9 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.7 5.8 0.3 48.9 52.8 3.8 6.7 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.9 10.2 8.6 0.4 51.7 53.4 6.9 10.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.0 8.7 0.4 53.0 54.1 6.8 9.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.0 9.3 0.5 52.7 54.2 6.9 8.8 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.6 10.4 8.3 0.3 48.7 52.4 7.6 10.7 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.4 8.9 7.6 0.6 53.1 55.0 5.7 8.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.3 7.2 0.9 54.0 58.1 6.9 9.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.8 9.8 8.6 0.6 54.7 55.5 7.1 9.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.4 9.1 7.2 0.9 54.3 56.4 5.4 8.8 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.7 6.4 6.8 0.2 48.0 51.7 3.7 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.9 9.1 0.6 54.1 55.5 6.5 8.6 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------