***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.2 11.1 0.7 55.1 55.1 9.0 11.0 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.2 11.1 0.7 56.5 55.1 6.7 9.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.7 11.4 0.6 55.9 54.8 7.8 11.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.1 8.8 0.9 57.6 57.8 4.1 5.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.5 9.5 0.6 52.5 54.8 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.3 9.1 0.9 53.5 56.5 9.9 11.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.5 11.0 0.7 57.8 54.9 6.8 10.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.7 9.1 0.7 51.2 55.5 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.6 10.2 0.6 52.5 54.1 9.8 11.4 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.1 9.6 0.6 51.5 54.3 9.7 11.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.9 9.6 0.6 52.2 54.5 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.4 9.4 0.7 51.4 55.8 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.2 9.3 0.8 52.0 56.1 10.5 12.0 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.4 10.5 0.4 51.5 52.5 7.8 11.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 10.1 9.8 9.6 1.2 62.2 61.5 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.4 9.5 0.8 52.9 55.7 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.0 10.8 0.6 56.5 54.4 6.6 9.5 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.1 9.7 0.6 51.3 53.9 8.6 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.1 11.2 0.7 56.1 54.9 6.7 10.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.3 8.6 8.1 0.8 50.8 56.3 6.8 8.6 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.5 10.7 0.6 53.2 54.2 9.6 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.5 10.8 0.6 55.6 54.0 6.7 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.9 11.4 0.6 55.6 54.3 7.0 10.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.0 10.6 0.5 52.6 53.4 8.3 11.8 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.7 9.7 0.7 55.8 55.4 8.8 10.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 12.3 11.5 9.4 1.3 57.9 60.7 9.8 11.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.6 10.6 0.7 55.5 55.0 8.9 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.4 9.2 1.1 59.0 59.0 8.7 9.3 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.2 9.1 0.6 50.3 53.9 6.5 7.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.5 11.1 0.7 56.8 55.3 6.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------