***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 13.9 13.8 14.9 2.2 72.8 68.8 11.3 12.4 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.3 13.8 15.1 2.4 74.8 69.8 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 14.9 14.8 15.4 2.3 73.2 68.7 11.1 12.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 7.4 7.3 11.6 1.7 66.5 63.9 4.7 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 14.2 13.6 13.3 2.0 68.5 65.7 11.1 12.5 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 13.8 13.6 12.3 1.9 65.9 64.3 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 13.4 13.9 15.0 2.4 74.4 69.7 10.2 11.7 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.8 12.6 2.0 68.2 65.8 3.3 5.6 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 15.2 14.0 14.2 2.1 68.5 66.7 11.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 13.8 13.5 13.4 2.1 67.5 65.5 10.7 12.5 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 14.8 14.4 13.7 2.1 67.6 65.5 11.0 12.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 14.3 14.3 13.1 2.1 69.5 66.7 10.4 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.6 14.5 13.6 2.1 67.4 66.0 10.6 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 15.2 16.1 14.8 2.3 72.6 66.8 11.3 12.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 12.2 12.4 13.1 2.0 72.9 69.3 10.5 11.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 14.9 14.9 13.4 2.1 67.6 66.0 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 12.5 13.1 14.7 2.3 73.4 68.8 10.2 10.9 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 13.0 13.4 13.2 2.2 68.8 65.8 9.5 11.2 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.5 15.3 2.4 75.0 69.7 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 11.7 12.1 11.6 2.1 68.3 66.0 7.9 9.6 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.8 14.7 2.0 67.9 66.4 11.0 12.8 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 13.4 13.7 14.7 2.2 72.6 68.3 10.6 11.4 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 14.1 15.2 15.5 2.5 75.8 69.8 10.9 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 15.3 15.3 14.7 2.3 71.6 66.7 12.0 13.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.0 13.4 1.8 67.5 65.6 10.2 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 14.3 15.0 12.8 2.4 73.5 70.9 10.9 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.0 14.4 2.1 70.5 67.9 10.6 12.5 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.7 12.4 1.8 68.2 65.7 10.3 11.8 12.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 10.8 11.7 12.7 2.1 67.4 65.7 6.6 8.6 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 13.7 13.8 15.2 2.4 75.3 70.2 10.1 11.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------