***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 18.1 21.2 19.6 5.3 94.2 92.0 12.5 14.8 16.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 16.7 20.6 19.8 5.3 94.3 92.5 12.7 13.7 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 18.5 21.5 20.1 5.3 92.6 91.5 12.2 14.9 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 13.5 14.0 15.9 4.7 91.8 89.7 6.7 9.4 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 18.4 20.7 18.1 5.0 91.4 90.2 12.8 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 18.9 20.3 17.3 5.5 92.4 91.6 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 16.6 20.4 19.8 5.4 94.8 92.6 12.5 13.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 10.8 11.5 16.8 4.6 89.3 88.2 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 18.9 21.9 19.0 5.0 93.2 91.1 12.4 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 18.8 20.2 17.8 4.8 89.1 88.4 12.1 14.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 19.0 21.4 18.8 5.1 91.8 90.3 12.6 15.2 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 19.0 21.5 17.6 5.0 92.9 90.8 12.7 14.7 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 19.0 22.0 18.8 5.4 91.7 90.7 13.2 15.0 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 19.6 21.3 19.5 5.0 91.2 89.5 10.9 15.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 16.4 18.7 18.0 5.1 97.9 94.6 12.9 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 19.6 22.2 18.4 5.4 92.7 91.0 13.8 15.6 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 15.4 19.5 19.3 5.2 93.3 92.3 12.1 13.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 16.7 19.4 17.3 4.6 88.6 87.0 11.3 13.8 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 17.4 20.7 19.9 5.2 93.7 92.1 12.3 14.1 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 15.9 16.6 15.4 4.1 88.0 85.3 10.4 12.2 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 18.5 21.5 19.7 5.0 92.6 90.7 12.4 15.2 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 16.8 20.5 19.2 4.8 92.1 91.1 12.2 13.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 17.6 21.0 20.1 5.3 94.0 92.1 11.5 14.2 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 19.1 21.5 19.3 4.9 89.8 88.9 12.1 14.9 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 17.2 19.6 18.3 4.9 92.1 90.1 12.9 13.9 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 18.6 21.1 17.1 5.3 94.5 93.5 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 18.3 20.6 19.1 5.2 93.3 91.5 12.8 14.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 18.0 19.4 17.1 5.0 94.9 91.8 12.3 14.8 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 15.5 17.0 16.6 4.3 88.2 86.0 8.7 11.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 16.6 20.5 19.9 5.3 94.1 92.4 12.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------