***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 4.2 5.3 6.7 2.0 85.1 76.5 2.7 3.1 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 3.8 5.2 6.2 1.9 85.3 75.9 1.5 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 5.5 7.5 6.6 1.9 86.5 77.7 3.6 4.2 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 0.8 1.6 3.7 1.6 81.4 75.0 -1.4 -1.0 0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 3.2 3.8 4.5 1.8 82.4 76.2 1.5 2.6 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 2.6 3.1 2.4 1.9 84.3 79.0 1.1 1.9 2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 3.8 5.1 6.4 2.0 85.6 76.2 1.7 2.4 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 -1.1 -0.7 2.4 1.5 78.2 74.5 -3.0 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 4.0 4.8 4.6 1.7 82.3 75.4 2.1 3.0 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 3.7 4.2 3.2 1.6 79.3 74.3 1.6 2.6 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 3.3 3.7 3.7 1.6 81.0 75.7 1.5 2.4 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 2.4 2.7 3.0 1.6 79.0 74.9 0.4 1.7 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 2.9 3.3 2.8 1.6 79.0 74.6 1.2 2.1 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 4.3 4.9 4.5 1.7 81.1 74.8 2.3 3.1 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 3.6 4.6 4.7 1.7 84.2 77.3 2.0 2.7 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 4.0 4.3 3.2 1.6 79.0 74.6 2.3 3.0 3.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 3.7 4.8 6.1 1.9 84.4 75.3 1.8 2.3 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 1.7 2.0 2.6 1.6 77.1 73.6 0.3 0.9 1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 3.8 5.3 6.2 1.9 86.5 77.2 1.9 2.5 3.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 -0.3 0.1 1.6 1.7 79.0 75.0 -2.4 -1.2 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 4.0 4.7 5.8 1.8 84.0 76.1 2.1 2.8 3.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 3.4 4.2 6.1 1.9 85.1 76.7 1.2 2.2 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 3.7 4.6 6.1 2.0 87.8 78.3 1.8 2.4 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 3.1 3.6 4.2 1.7 81.7 75.6 1.4 2.1 2.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 3.9 4.5 5.7 2.0 85.5 77.0 2.2 3.0 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 3.1 3.6 2.7 1.6 80.3 76.5 1.5 2.2 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 4.2 5.8 6.3 2.0 84.5 76.6 2.5 3.1 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 2.1 2.9 3.7 1.6 81.4 75.0 0.9 1.4 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.6 78.1 74.5 -0.4 0.5 1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 4.1 5.8 6.5 2.0 86.3 76.9 2.2 2.8 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------