***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.4 2.1 4.0 -0.1 44.8 48.1 1.3 2.6 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 0.5 1.3 3.7 -0.1 44.9 48.5 0.5 1.8 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.5 3.7 4.0 0.0 44.6 49.3 2.4 4.1 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -2.6 -0.8 1.3 -0.1 43.0 48.1 -1.9 -0.5 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.7 1.7 -0.2 41.6 47.3 0.0 1.8 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 0.0 1.5 0.2 0.4 47.7 52.1 0.7 1.6 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 0.3 1.0 3.8 0.0 46.5 48.9 0.6 1.2 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -5.1 -2.9 0.3 0.1 42.3 49.0 -3.6 -2.3 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 2.9 1.8 2.1 -0.2 40.9 47.2 1.2 2.2 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 0.8 1.9 0.9 0.0 42.3 48.4 0.1 2.0 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 0.3 1.6 1.1 -0.1 41.8 47.6 1.0 1.9 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 41.1 48.1 0.2 1.4 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 42.1 48.2 0.1 1.7 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 1.1 2.1 2.2 0.0 45.7 49.8 1.6 2.4 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.0 2.3 0.0 46.4 49.6 1.2 2.2 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.2 2.2 0.7 -0.1 42.2 47.8 1.5 2.5 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 0.7 1.8 3.6 0.0 47.9 49.0 0.4 2.0 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 43.1 48.8 -0.6 0.9 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 0.6 1.5 3.7 0.0 45.2 48.8 0.7 1.6 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -2.1 -0.7 0.3 45.8 49.9 -2.5 -1.9 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 0.9 1.4 3.2 -0.1 42.5 47.9 0.5 1.9 3.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 0.4 1.4 3.6 0.1 48.5 49.9 0.3 1.6 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 0.7 1.7 3.7 0.1 46.9 49.7 0.8 1.8 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 2.3 1.4 1.8 0.0 44.4 49.2 0.7 1.8 2.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.0 1.9 2.8 -0.1 42.8 48.5 1.2 2.2 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.7 0.2 0.1 44.9 49.4 0.9 1.9 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 0.8 1.8 3.5 -0.2 43.8 47.8 0.6 2.2 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 -0.6 0.5 1.4 0.0 44.2 48.5 -0.3 1.0 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 0.5 -0.6 0.1 0.2 44.8 49.5 -0.9 -0.1 1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 0.8 1.6 3.8 0.0 44.6 48.8 0.9 2.0 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------