***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 6.3 5.9 7.2 1.5 69.7 64.1 2.3 3.4 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 4.9 5.0 6.7 1.4 67.8 63.8 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 7.0 6.6 7.2 1.5 68.3 64.8 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.3 0.7 4.2 1.1 60.2 61.0 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 4.6 3.3 5.0 1.0 61.6 60.2 0.6 2.5 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 3.7 3.1 2.8 1.2 64.9 62.5 0.5 2.3 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.0 3.9 6.7 1.4 66.0 63.1 1.5 2.8 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -0.1 -0.3 3.0 1.1 65.4 61.4 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 5.7 3.9 5.0 1.1 64.1 61.3 2.9 3.3 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 5.1 4.0 3.7 1.1 65.0 61.2 1.7 3.0 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 5.2 3.7 4.2 1.0 62.2 60.1 0.8 2.8 3.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.4 3.6 1.0 62.4 59.7 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 2.8 2.4 3.2 0.8 57.3 57.8 0.7 2.0 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.7 5.0 1.2 64.3 62.2 2.8 3.7 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 4.7 3.9 5.5 1.3 65.7 64.4 1.2 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.1 3.6 0.8 57.4 58.3 2.2 3.7 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 4.9 3.7 6.4 1.3 62.9 62.6 1.9 2.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 2.9 2.5 3.2 1.1 63.5 60.4 0.6 1.4 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 4.9 5.6 6.7 1.5 69.9 65.1 1.8 3.0 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -0.3 0.1 2.2 1.2 65.2 61.1 -3.0 -1.2 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 5.1 3.7 6.2 1.2 64.6 61.8 2.1 3.1 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 4.3 4.0 6.6 1.4 67.1 64.6 1.6 2.3 3.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 5.1 5.5 6.7 1.6 71.8 66.7 2.0 3.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 4.1 3.2 4.8 1.1 64.1 61.6 1.6 2.7 3.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 5.9 4.7 6.3 1.4 65.8 63.4 2.1 2.6 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 4.7 2.9 3.2 1.0 60.4 60.0 0.6 2.4 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 6.0 5.3 6.7 1.4 66.0 62.1 1.5 3.1 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 1.9 2.0 4.3 1.0 59.0 60.5 0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 3.0 2.3 2.7 1.2 65.7 62.0 -0.1 0.7 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 5.3 5.9 7.0 1.6 70.5 64.9 1.8 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------