***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.8 11.2 12.7 6.3 95.8 95.5 3.5 4.6 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 7.1 11.0 12.2 6.2 96.0 96.2 2.8 3.8 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 8.9 13.3 12.6 6.1 95.9 95.7 5.2 6.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 4.9 6.9 8.9 5.2 94.2 93.7 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 6.1 10.2 11.0 6.1 97.0 95.7 1.6 3.3 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 5.2 9.1 7.8 5.5 96.2 95.5 0.5 1.9 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 6.6 10.4 12.5 6.5 96.2 96.1 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 2.1 5.5 7.7 4.9 94.2 93.5 -1.1 0.1 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 7.2 10.5 10.5 5.8 97.8 96.0 2.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 6.9 10.2 8.6 5.2 95.6 94.3 3.0 3.7 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 6.5 10.1 10.0 5.7 97.0 95.7 2.1 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 5.6 8.7 9.0 5.5 94.8 94.4 1.3 2.3 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 6.3 8.9 8.8 5.5 96.0 94.8 1.2 2.2 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 6.9 10.1 10.2 5.6 96.7 96.0 3.9 4.7 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 7.1 9.1 9.9 4.9 96.1 94.8 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 7.1 10.7 9.1 5.5 96.3 94.8 2.8 3.6 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 6.5 10.2 12.0 6.2 97.2 96.5 2.8 4.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 5.0 7.5 8.2 5.2 96.0 94.6 1.2 1.8 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 6.3 10.8 12.2 6.2 96.6 96.6 3.1 4.4 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 2.3 6.0 7.1 5.2 95.4 93.9 -1.5 -0.5 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 6.7 10.5 11.9 6.0 96.2 95.6 2.3 4.3 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 6.4 9.4 12.0 6.0 97.5 96.7 2.1 3.8 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 6.6 9.8 12.0 6.1 97.4 96.9 3.2 4.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 5.9 9.5 10.2 5.6 96.6 95.7 2.6 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 6.8 11.6 12.1 6.2 96.1 95.3 2.9 4.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 6.2 8.7 8.6 5.5 95.5 94.6 1.6 2.7 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 7.4 12.1 12.7 6.6 95.8 95.1 3.0 4.3 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 5.4 8.0 9.0 5.1 94.8 93.8 1.7 2.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 5.8 9.1 7.5 5.2 95.6 94.7 1.1 2.2 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.3 11.5 12.6 6.3 95.8 96.0 3.3 4.6 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------