***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 62.1 140.4 76.5 71.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 53.3 53.5 57.5 131.6 72.5 67.7 33.8 40.6 45.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 65.4 71.9 61.7 138.4 76.7 70.9 38.0 49.5 59.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 68.0 71.9 69.8 143.6 77.6 72.1 40.1 55.0 64.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 65.4 65.7 64.6 133.6 76.2 68.5 33.9 48.3 56.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 64.2 72.4 69.9 139.9 78.4 71.9 32.3 40.9 55.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 54.0 52.3 58.4 133.5 74.1 68.0 29.2 37.2 45.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 95.0 102.6 66.4 125.4 73.2 66.1 48.4 77.4 95.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 58.4 65.0 64.0 131.9 73.7 67.6 30.8 42.6 58.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 63.0 59.9 66.0 127.5 73.6 66.8 33.5 49.9 57.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 72.7 69.4 60.3 128.7 73.6 66.8 30.4 44.3 52.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 75.0 81.4 60.7 129.5 75.3 67.8 29.4 44.0 62.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 79.7 92.5 66.2 136.0 78.4 71.1 37.2 46.7 67.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 86.6 90.3 72.1 136.2 75.5 70.8 54.0 66.4 81.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 63.4 96.9 77.2 160.0 84.4 77.2 28.5 41.1 62.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 68.3 68.3 62.8 133.7 75.0 69.3 35.7 42.9 47.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 57.0 55.6 55.9 127.4 71.5 65.2 29.0 41.0 47.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 69.5 75.5 73.5 131.2 76.4 69.1 44.1 56.7 70.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 59.9 64.5 58.5 133.0 73.5 68.5 36.3 47.3 59.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 80.7 86.7 90.6 129.8 73.8 68.8 46.5 60.3 82.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 58.8 57.0 62.5 135.3 73.2 68.6 40.4 45.0 52.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 58.3 60.3 56.8 123.7 70.8 64.7 32.4 50.8 59.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 59.2 58.9 61.9 136.5 76.0 69.7 40.2 50.1 56.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 74.5 80.6 68.8 135.4 76.1 70.3 37.7 58.3 70.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 55.2 66.1 71.0 145.5 80.7 73.1 29.9 43.4 51.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 70.2 85.7 71.2 146.5 80.4 74.2 34.8 41.4 65.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 55.0 60.8 67.9 143.8 78.7 72.3 34.2 43.5 47.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 66.4 74.2 70.0 146.3 77.3 72.6 30.8 40.5 59.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 106.3 111.8 78.6 128.7 74.8 68.6 64.6 86.0 101.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 55.1 61.9 59.4 136.3 76.2 69.7 31.3 36.9 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------