***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 10.1 93.7 55.8 48.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.8 5.6 9.3 91.5 51.8 46.9 2.2 5.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.7 10.3 92.3 52.6 47.2 2.1 6.8 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.1 12.2 95.7 61.7 52.5 2.8 10.5 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.1 13.2 11.6 91.1 60.1 51.0 2.5 6.3 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.6 12.0 85.5 55.9 49.0 4.0 12.4 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.9 6.2 9.2 91.1 49.0 47.1 1.4 6.8 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 23.2 22.3 12.2 80.2 51.6 46.2 4.8 19.5 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.6 12.0 11.6 90.2 58.3 49.4 1.3 9.4 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.7 8.7 12.0 84.1 52.7 47.1 2.5 7.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.8 10.1 10.8 83.0 55.2 48.2 2.4 7.4 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.5 7.2 11.0 80.4 53.8 47.1 1.8 6.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.2 11.6 84.1 56.5 48.8 2.6 7.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.5 9.1 12.6 93.0 52.0 46.7 4.9 8.8 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.0 11.5 13.1 98.8 63.2 52.7 2.9 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.7 9.1 11.1 84.3 56.2 49.2 1.0 8.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.1 8.6 8.9 89.3 52.9 46.4 2.0 7.5 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 10.3 13.3 86.9 54.6 46.8 2.9 8.9 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.0 9.7 92.3 52.4 46.7 2.7 7.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.6 11.8 16.0 84.9 52.9 46.3 2.1 10.8 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.9 10.9 92.1 59.2 49.1 2.5 8.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.1 9.8 9.5 90.3 53.0 46.7 3.4 8.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.1 7.6 10.4 92.4 52.7 46.1 3.5 6.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 8.1 12.1 90.8 52.8 46.9 2.3 7.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.5 11.6 97.4 60.3 51.8 1.9 5.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.9 12.3 92.4 58.2 50.5 2.6 10.5 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.1 5.7 11.0 97.1 55.7 50.6 1.8 4.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.5 14.4 12.3 92.7 60.3 51.5 2.8 6.6 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.5 15.8 14.4 87.7 54.1 46.6 5.0 13.5 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.3 5.8 9.6 92.5 50.6 47.1 1.8 5.8 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------