***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 17.8 148.8 76.7 62.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.9 19.8 15.6 122.3 71.4 60.7 2.6 7.9 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.4 21.8 17.4 145.1 76.5 64.4 6.4 9.1 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 20.8 23.6 17.9 143.3 72.9 60.8 4.3 9.1 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 25.2 23.8 17.3 149.9 72.9 62.9 5.4 10.4 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 25.8 21.2 16.7 144.1 72.7 62.1 3.2 12.1 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.1 14.2 16.0 126.3 71.1 60.0 3.3 5.8 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 31.8 31.5 17.1 138.7 71.9 62.4 11.2 15.1 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 25.2 24.3 17.6 154.4 74.9 64.4 5.7 10.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 24.6 23.8 17.8 148.4 72.8 64.4 6.8 9.8 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 22.7 24.5 15.7 146.8 74.2 62.5 8.1 11.7 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 26.8 28.5 14.9 138.5 72.7 61.4 3.6 12.9 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 23.8 26.5 15.8 141.7 71.9 62.1 5.9 10.4 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 26.8 28.1 20.3 144.8 73.3 64.9 10.6 15.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 13.0 21.5 17.6 136.7 71.9 59.3 3.2 7.7 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 20.9 23.3 15.6 144.9 72.9 61.5 4.7 9.5 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.5 13.7 14.7 111.9 67.1 56.5 2.7 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 27.1 25.4 19.9 147.1 73.0 64.9 7.0 12.5 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.7 19.4 16.1 126.8 71.7 62.2 3.8 8.9 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 30.3 27.9 23.4 134.0 72.2 62.6 7.6 18.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 24.6 23.3 17.7 152.5 76.3 63.6 3.0 9.9 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 12.5 13.6 15.0 109.1 64.9 56.7 2.7 9.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 18.7 20.9 17.4 137.5 71.0 64.2 4.4 11.3 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 20.8 24.8 19.1 149.1 75.3 65.3 5.1 11.8 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 16.4 20.2 19.2 146.8 76.3 62.5 3.1 8.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 23.4 24.8 15.9 141.2 73.2 62.4 10.6 12.6 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 18.1 22.1 19.0 146.9 76.4 62.6 4.8 7.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 23.2 20.2 17.1 141.9 72.7 60.1 3.1 8.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 36.6 36.2 21.4 138.3 72.7 63.5 10.7 21.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 16.2 19.5 16.3 131.4 71.8 62.4 3.6 8.5 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------