***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 17.9 172.4 80.9 72.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 18.8 23.8 17.5 164.5 79.5 71.2 2.8 10.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 15.4 19.3 19.4 187.2 81.7 74.2 3.4 7.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 21.8 39.8 22.2 196.4 86.2 74.0 1.8 10.6 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 15.1 20.0 21.7 187.6 83.1 74.0 2.6 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 14.8 21.4 24.6 193.6 84.6 71.9 1.1 7.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 14.4 17.2 17.2 158.7 79.2 70.5 3.1 8.9 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 24.4 30.8 22.1 173.0 79.7 71.0 3.9 15.4 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 12.9 16.7 21.5 182.2 81.0 73.3 1.9 7.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 15.8 18.2 22.3 175.6 80.3 72.2 2.0 11.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 14.2 19.8 20.5 180.2 81.9 72.2 0.7 6.9 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 14.3 21.4 20.3 186.4 81.1 72.5 1.7 6.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 16.5 21.4 22.3 191.6 80.9 72.9 1.5 10.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 23.3 31.7 23.3 187.8 83.2 74.3 4.7 10.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 12.4 24.8 23.6 203.7 87.0 74.2 2.3 6.6 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 15.0 21.1 21.3 187.1 81.5 72.9 1.5 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 16.7 26.0 17.0 160.5 79.6 70.2 2.0 6.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 17.1 23.9 24.4 176.4 81.4 73.6 2.9 7.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 19.7 25.9 18.2 175.0 80.9 72.5 1.5 9.2 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 15.8 20.4 27.8 158.4 77.1 69.9 5.9 8.6 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 13.2 15.9 20.0 185.2 81.9 73.6 3.0 7.0 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 17.1 22.1 17.5 162.7 78.7 69.1 1.8 10.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 22.2 29.2 19.8 189.8 83.5 74.3 2.1 9.6 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 21.0 27.6 22.7 187.0 81.8 74.3 2.0 8.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 14.2 34.5 21.7 191.3 84.5 75.1 1.2 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 11.7 18.2 22.2 196.8 83.1 72.0 1.7 8.6 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 14.0 17.5 19.7 175.6 81.8 72.4 2.2 5.7 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 11.1 19.9 22.5 196.3 85.6 73.0 0.9 4.5 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 23.3 30.9 25.8 171.5 81.4 72.9 5.4 9.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 16.3 20.6 17.9 170.5 79.8 72.1 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------