***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 0.0 16.3 147.1 72.6 71.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 11.0 11.7 15.1 149.1 74.5 70.6 1.0 3.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 11.8 15.2 14.7 132.0 70.4 68.5 0.8 5.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.0 15.5 17.5 145.1 79.3 72.6 2.3 4.8 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 5.6 11.3 14.0 112.2 66.3 64.1 0.5 4.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 8.1 10.1 16.5 142.7 76.8 72.8 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 11.2 11.7 16.0 157.7 76.1 72.6 0.5 3.8 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 11.7 11.3 15.0 119.3 70.4 66.5 1.4 6.7 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 6.2 10.8 13.3 106.7 64.3 61.9 0.7 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 7.2 12.0 13.9 109.1 66.7 63.4 0.6 6.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 6.2 9.3 13.4 113.4 69.3 64.7 0.3 5.5 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 11.1 14.2 14.6 126.3 73.4 69.2 0.7 5.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 10.4 11.4 16.4 136.7 74.7 71.6 0.2 4.7 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 19.0 19.1 15.8 122.9 69.0 66.0 3.0 10.5 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 10.3 20.0 22.9 217.3 87.3 81.8 0.5 2.0 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 6.8 7.3 14.8 127.2 73.9 69.6 0.1 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 12.4 11.6 15.3 150.5 74.2 71.4 0.9 3.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 13.5 14.2 15.9 119.1 70.2 66.2 2.5 7.5 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.4 14.5 140.1 73.2 69.1 1.1 4.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 17.7 22.2 23.3 147.6 76.8 72.1 1.0 5.1 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 10.3 10.3 13.9 116.6 67.8 64.3 0.8 7.2 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 12.4 16.8 14.7 136.1 72.0 68.6 0.7 3.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.1 14.2 130.1 71.8 67.4 1.9 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 16.5 14.9 14.8 119.0 68.8 65.6 1.7 9.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 13.6 14.6 18.5 148.7 74.3 72.9 2.2 4.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 13.0 15.8 20.8 163.4 79.3 75.1 0.4 2.9 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 12.2 13.0 18.2 155.2 74.6 73.2 0.6 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 8.8 12.2 18.1 166.3 82.0 76.4 0.4 2.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 22.5 19.7 17.0 121.0 69.2 65.9 3.3 12.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 11.8 11.7 15.6 152.0 75.1 71.2 1.0 3.9 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------