***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.1 -0.1 45.7 49.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 9.4 10.4 10.8 -0.3 42.1 46.8 10.0 10.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 10.4 11.1 11.2 -0.1 43.8 49.2 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 4.4 5.6 9.4 0.1 49.6 52.2 4.6 5.6 7.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 10.5 11.5 10.1 0.2 48.6 52.5 10.8 11.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.8 9.5 0.7 55.9 58.0 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 9.4 10.3 10.7 -0.3 42.6 47.5 9.9 10.6 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 3.5 4.5 9.3 0.2 48.6 52.1 3.8 4.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 10.7 12.1 10.7 0.1 48.1 51.4 11.2 12.1 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 9.8 11.4 9.9 0.1 47.3 50.8 10.7 11.6 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 10.6 11.8 10.2 0.4 50.4 54.6 11.1 11.8 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.2 10.0 0.5 52.3 55.5 11.1 11.9 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 11.0 12.7 10.0 0.7 55.4 58.1 11.1 12.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 10.5 11.2 10.4 -0.4 37.0 44.9 10.8 12.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 9.4 10.9 9.9 0.3 52.8 54.5 8.7 10.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 11.5 13.0 10.1 0.6 53.2 56.9 11.8 12.9 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 8.7 9.9 10.3 -0.5 40.7 44.5 9.5 10.1 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 8.9 9.9 9.4 -0.2 41.8 47.5 9.5 10.5 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 9.8 10.7 11.0 -0.3 42.1 47.0 10.2 11.1 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.1 9.0 7.6 -0.1 43.3 47.4 8.2 9.2 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 10.5 11.2 11.0 0.0 45.3 50.2 10.7 11.7 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 9.1 10.2 10.4 -0.5 38.0 43.4 9.8 10.9 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 9.6 11.0 11.1 -0.2 42.4 47.1 9.9 11.1 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 10.8 11.4 10.5 -0.2 40.9 47.3 11.1 12.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 9.9 10.2 9.9 -0.1 43.0 50.0 10.1 10.6 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.2 9.7 0.7 57.0 58.1 10.8 11.6 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 10.5 11.2 10.5 -0.1 44.2 49.6 10.9 11.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 9.6 11.8 9.9 0.3 53.2 54.3 9.3 10.8 12.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.4 8.1 8.7 -0.2 41.6 47.0 7.6 8.3 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 9.6 10.4 11.0 -0.2 43.4 48.1 10.0 10.7 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------