***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 8.4 0.3 52.5 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.8 8.1 0.2 48.6 51.2 6.5 8.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.2 8.4 0.3 51.2 52.1 7.1 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 0.5 4.3 6.5 0.2 50.9 52.3 1.2 4.2 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.4 9.9 6.9 0.3 50.5 52.5 6.5 9.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.4 8.5 6.2 0.5 48.6 53.6 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.5 8.5 8.0 0.2 49.7 51.9 6.3 8.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -0.4 2.4 6.2 0.2 49.6 52.6 1.0 2.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.1 10.4 7.6 0.3 51.8 52.7 8.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.6 6.8 0.2 50.8 52.5 7.3 9.6 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.4 9.9 6.9 0.3 51.0 53.0 7.9 9.9 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.6 9.5 6.8 0.4 49.6 53.2 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.6 10.0 6.6 0.5 49.0 53.9 7.4 10.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.3 10.6 7.6 0.0 49.9 50.4 8.4 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.8 6.7 0.3 54.7 53.4 4.6 7.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 7.0 10.3 6.7 0.4 49.7 53.2 7.9 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.3 7.8 0.1 48.0 50.6 6.1 8.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.1 6.5 0.2 49.4 51.9 5.6 8.1 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.4 8.9 8.2 0.1 49.3 50.9 7.0 8.9 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.7 4.8 0.1 50.0 52.0 3.8 6.7 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.9 10.3 8.0 0.3 51.8 52.5 6.9 10.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.7 9.0 7.9 0.0 49.2 49.6 6.8 9.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.3 8.9 8.3 0.1 51.3 50.9 6.9 8.8 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.3 10.7 7.6 0.2 49.9 51.6 7.6 10.7 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.8 8.8 7.0 0.3 51.7 52.9 5.7 8.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.8 8.9 6.6 0.5 49.1 54.5 6.9 9.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.6 7.7 0.4 52.4 53.0 7.1 9.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 6.3 8.9 6.7 0.3 51.7 52.5 5.4 8.8 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.6 5.8 0.1 48.9 51.8 3.7 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.7 8.3 0.2 50.5 51.6 6.5 8.6 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------