***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.3 -0.3 47.8 48.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.3 10.1 10.1 -0.3 51.5 47.7 6.7 9.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 8.5 11.7 10.4 -0.2 51.1 49.2 7.8 11.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.6 8.7 -0.1 50.2 51.3 4.1 5.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 8.4 11.5 9.1 -0.2 51.1 50.1 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.3 11.2 8.1 -0.3 47.9 49.3 9.9 11.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 7.0 10.1 9.9 -0.3 51.0 47.4 6.8 10.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 1.4 3.6 8.3 -0.4 47.8 48.5 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 8.6 11.5 9.7 -0.3 50.7 49.4 9.8 11.4 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 8.3 10.7 8.9 -0.4 47.4 48.3 9.7 11.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 8.6 11.9 9.0 -0.2 52.7 50.3 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.4 11.1 8.9 -0.2 48.9 49.7 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.0 11.5 8.5 -0.3 46.2 49.0 10.5 12.0 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 8.7 11.0 9.7 -0.5 47.2 47.1 7.8 11.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 7.6 8.9 9.0 0.2 51.7 53.6 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 9.2 12.2 8.8 -0.2 51.8 50.1 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 7.0 9.5 9.7 -0.4 50.0 46.5 6.6 9.5 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.8 9.9 8.5 -0.7 44.6 46.3 8.6 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 7.7 10.4 10.3 -0.2 51.2 48.2 6.7 10.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.2 7.6 6.6 -0.8 42.1 44.9 6.8 8.6 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 8.4 11.3 10.1 -0.3 50.7 49.6 9.6 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 7.4 9.9 9.9 -0.3 48.9 46.8 6.7 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.1 10.4 10.5 -0.2 50.4 48.5 7.0 10.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 9.2 11.5 9.7 -0.5 46.0 47.6 8.3 11.8 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 7.4 10.2 9.0 -0.2 49.2 49.4 8.8 10.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 8.7 10.1 8.3 -0.4 40.8 48.9 9.8 11.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 8.0 10.9 9.6 -0.3 47.7 48.1 8.9 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.3 9.0 0.0 51.4 52.2 8.7 9.3 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.8 7.0 7.7 -0.8 42.9 45.2 6.5 7.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 7.3 10.1 10.2 -0.3 51.7 48.3 6.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------