***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.2 0.1 46.0 50.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 9.6 11.2 11.9 -0.2 45.0 48.5 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.3 12.0 12.3 0.0 44.9 50.1 11.1 12.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.1 6.3 10.8 0.4 47.7 51.7 4.7 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.1 11.2 0.3 45.6 51.3 11.1 12.5 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.7 10.5 0.8 48.5 54.1 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.8 11.8 -0.1 45.6 48.6 10.2 11.7 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.3 4.6 10.2 0.3 45.1 51.5 3.3 5.6 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.5 11.6 0.2 44.8 51.0 11.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 10.5 12.2 10.8 0.1 44.9 50.8 10.7 12.5 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.8 12.2 11.1 0.5 46.4 52.7 11.0 12.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.0 11.0 0.6 46.8 53.5 10.4 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.9 11.9 10.8 0.7 48.4 53.9 10.6 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 10.5 11.9 11.3 -0.4 43.1 47.1 11.3 12.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.7 11.2 0.7 51.9 54.2 10.5 11.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.0 11.0 0.7 47.6 53.3 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 9.5 10.5 11.5 -0.3 42.9 47.1 10.2 10.9 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 8.8 10.7 10.2 -0.2 43.9 48.5 9.5 11.2 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 9.4 11.5 12.1 -0.2 44.6 48.7 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.0 9.4 8.3 -0.2 42.1 47.4 7.9 9.6 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 10.3 12.2 12.0 0.1 44.5 50.3 11.0 12.8 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 9.3 11.0 11.6 -0.4 43.9 46.9 10.6 11.4 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.8 11.3 12.2 -0.2 43.9 48.7 10.9 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 10.5 12.8 11.4 -0.2 43.7 48.8 12.0 13.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.0 11.7 11.0 0.1 44.7 50.3 10.2 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.9 11.9 10.6 0.8 49.0 54.8 10.9 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.2 12.3 11.6 0.1 44.8 50.1 10.6 12.5 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.8 11.2 0.6 50.2 52.9 10.3 11.8 12.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.7 7.8 9.3 -0.3 42.5 47.3 6.6 8.6 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 9.6 11.4 12.1 -0.1 46.1 49.2 10.1 11.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------