***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 13.5 -0.5 45.2 45.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 14.2 13.3 13.0 -0.9 41.4 41.6 12.7 13.7 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 15.5 14.4 13.8 -0.4 44.5 45.9 12.2 14.9 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 10.1 9.5 11.6 0.0 51.2 49.4 6.7 9.4 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 15.4 14.9 13.1 0.3 51.7 52.1 12.8 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 17.3 16.5 13.3 2.0 68.4 66.3 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 14.1 13.1 12.9 -0.8 41.6 42.6 12.5 13.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 7.9 7.6 12.4 0.6 52.1 53.2 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.2 13.9 0.2 50.2 50.5 12.4 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 15.1 14.4 13.0 0.3 49.4 50.5 12.1 14.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.9 13.6 0.8 55.7 56.0 12.6 15.2 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 15.4 16.5 13.4 1.2 59.7 58.9 12.7 14.7 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 17.6 17.2 14.2 2.0 67.0 65.7 13.2 15.0 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 15.9 11.5 13.2 -0.7 37.6 40.1 10.9 15.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 14.8 14.9 12.9 0.2 52.4 50.5 12.9 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 16.3 17.5 13.9 1.5 63.9 62.1 13.8 15.6 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 13.4 12.5 12.3 -1.3 35.7 37.0 12.1 13.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 14.1 11.8 12.5 0.1 43.2 46.7 11.3 13.8 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 14.6 12.8 13.3 -0.8 41.5 42.4 12.3 14.1 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 93 7 100 12.5 12.1 10.8 0.3 45.3 47.7 10.4 12.2 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 15.7 14.8 13.9 -0.2 45.4 47.4 12.4 15.2 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 14.2 12.6 12.3 -1.4 35.4 35.2 12.2 13.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 14.6 13.0 13.6 -0.6 40.5 43.4 11.5 14.2 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 15.3 13.1 13.4 -0.3 40.5 44.9 12.1 14.9 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 14.5 13.7 12.5 -0.4 45.9 46.3 12.9 13.9 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 17.2 15.8 13.2 1.8 65.7 65.7 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 15.2 14.0 13.0 -0.4 46.2 46.4 12.8 14.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.3 12.7 0.5 55.1 53.4 12.3 14.8 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 11.8 11.2 12.0 0.2 44.6 47.2 8.7 11.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 14.6 13.0 13.4 -0.6 44.6 44.0 12.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------