***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 6.4 1.4 60.5 61.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 3.3 3.3 5.8 1.0 56.8 58.6 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 5.7 6.1 6.1 1.4 64.6 62.7 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 1.0 1.1 4.4 1.9 66.6 66.4 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 3.0 4.0 4.6 1.8 66.8 65.5 0.6 2.5 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 3.8 4.1 3.3 2.2 72.0 70.4 0.5 2.3 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 3.3 3.0 5.8 1.0 54.9 58.6 1.5 2.8 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -0.2 0.0 3.6 2.0 67.7 67.8 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.0 5.2 1.7 65.8 63.8 2.9 3.3 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 4.9 4.3 4.1 1.9 67.1 65.9 1.7 3.0 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 5.1 4.1 4.4 2.1 69.5 68.2 0.8 2.8 3.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 3.9 2.8 4.2 2.2 68.5 69.3 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 4.0 4.1 3.8 2.2 69.1 69.8 0.7 2.0 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.4 4.8 1.4 63.3 61.6 2.8 3.7 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 4.7 4.4 5.0 2.0 71.1 68.4 1.2 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.4 4.1 2.2 70.5 69.8 2.2 3.7 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.5 3.0 5.5 0.8 51.3 56.0 1.9 2.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 2.7 3.0 3.6 1.9 67.7 65.6 0.6 1.4 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 3.5 4.1 5.8 1.1 59.8 59.7 1.8 3.0 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 -0.6 0.5 2.3 1.7 66.9 64.7 -3.0 -1.2 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.7 5.9 1.5 63.9 62.7 2.1 3.1 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 2.8 2.5 5.4 0.7 53.5 55.8 1.6 2.3 3.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 3.5 4.3 5.7 1.3 62.4 61.6 2.0 3.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 3.1 3.6 4.8 1.7 66.1 64.5 1.6 2.7 3.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 3.4 4.4 5.1 1.6 64.4 63.7 2.1 2.6 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 4.6 4.5 4.0 2.3 69.3 71.0 0.6 2.4 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 3.8 3.8 5.8 1.5 62.7 62.5 1.5 3.1 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 2.9 3.1 4.7 2.0 69.6 68.1 0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 2.7 2.4 3.0 1.8 67.6 65.2 -0.1 0.7 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 3.6 3.7 6.0 1.2 59.2 60.1 1.8 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------