***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 9999.0 0.0 7.1 0.9 68.6 63.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 4.2 3.7 5.9 -0.1 47.9 50.9 2.8 3.8 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 7.9 7.4 6.6 0.5 64.5 60.6 5.2 6.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 4.0 3.0 5.0 1.3 71.3 66.2 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 5.5 5.9 5.6 1.3 73.6 68.2 1.6 3.3 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 5.0 5.7 5.5 3.5 83.2 82.4 0.5 1.9 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 4.5 4.1 6.0 0.1 51.2 52.5 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 1.8 2.1 4.8 2.0 78.7 72.8 -1.1 0.1 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 6.7 6.3 6.0 1.3 74.1 68.5 2.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 6.2 6.6 5.0 1.4 74.7 69.1 3.0 3.7 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 5.8 6.3 5.5 1.6 75.6 70.3 2.1 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 5.1 6.0 5.5 2.3 80.1 74.4 1.3 2.3 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 5.9 6.8 5.8 2.8 81.6 76.2 1.2 2.2 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 5.1 4.9 4.8 -0.1 51.8 50.9 3.9 4.7 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 6.3 5.9 6.4 1.7 72.9 68.9 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 6.7 7.2 5.6 2.3 79.1 73.8 2.8 3.6 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 4.8 4.1 5.3 -0.5 44.4 45.5 2.8 4.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 4.0 4.3 4.2 1.2 69.8 66.8 1.2 1.8 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 4.7 4.5 6.0 0.0 51.3 52.8 3.1 4.4 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 1.9 2.5 3.5 2.1 79.2 74.2 -1.5 -0.5 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 5.9 6.1 6.7 0.9 70.7 65.3 2.3 4.3 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 4.2 3.6 5.3 -0.5 42.2 44.2 2.1 3.8 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 4.7 4.7 5.9 0.2 55.6 56.0 3.2 4.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 4.3 4.9 5.1 0.6 63.2 60.7 2.6 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 5.9 6.2 6.3 1.1 68.6 65.9 2.9 4.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 5.8 6.8 6.3 3.4 82.6 80.2 1.6 2.7 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.2 6.5 6.7 1.1 69.2 65.7 3.0 4.3 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 4.7 4.3 5.7 1.6 72.0 68.2 1.7 2.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 4.9 4.9 3.7 1.4 73.4 68.6 1.1 2.2 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 5.0 4.8 6.4 0.2 53.7 55.2 3.3 4.6 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------