***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 50.5 59.1 68.0 147.2 80.1 68.0 31.0 37.5 51.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 55.0 64.8 64.5 151.0 82.2 69.8 33.8 39.3 47.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 63.2 71.6 65.0 144.6 78.5 67.3 35.0 48.9 59.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 56.4 69.7 70.4 133.0 75.3 64.4 40.0 52.3 64.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 53.1 64.8 67.1 136.6 75.2 66.2 30.9 48.4 56.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 44.4 55.1 59.2 123.1 68.0 62.4 32.3 37.2 54.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 56.9 75.7 63.9 148.5 81.7 69.5 29.4 39.8 44.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 78.6 101.8 71.8 134.0 75.0 65.9 48.3 73.3 94.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 46.8 63.0 66.8 136.5 74.1 65.4 28.5 42.1 58.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 59.2 58.9 69.8 134.7 74.3 65.9 31.6 46.4 57.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 50.3 67.5 65.2 135.0 74.7 66.0 30.3 43.3 52.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 67.0 76.7 65.0 133.2 73.9 65.9 29.0 41.4 62.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 69.4 72.3 64.6 128.2 72.0 65.1 37.2 46.7 67.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 85.9 97.4 76.6 142.3 78.4 68.2 51.5 66.3 75.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 47.4 70.5 69.1 128.6 72.4 62.4 29.8 42.8 59.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 60.2 59.4 64.1 132.1 73.8 66.0 33.8 42.3 47.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 61.1 75.0 63.2 144.4 80.6 69.8 32.0 42.0 46.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 67.5 73.1 73.5 136.1 74.9 66.9 37.5 56.3 68.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 60.0 69.3 64.8 151.0 82.9 69.5 35.8 45.0 59.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 75.1 86.1 90.7 134.2 75.4 66.1 45.9 59.7 76.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 55.5 59.1 66.2 139.3 76.2 65.8 38.2 45.0 52.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 59.3 64.4 65.3 142.7 80.6 69.2 32.9 50.8 59.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 58.7 72.7 65.7 148.8 82.4 68.7 37.3 50.3 56.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 73.5 77.6 70.2 140.0 75.9 67.5 36.1 56.5 70.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 53.0 60.3 72.9 140.7 78.1 66.5 26.3 40.4 52.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 47.3 64.2 65.9 126.2 69.0 64.4 35.4 41.0 57.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 50.8 60.6 70.4 145.3 79.5 67.9 34.0 41.4 46.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 48.4 63.4 64.9 129.9 73.3 63.3 28.5 42.1 56.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 97.1 106.4 78.4 135.3 75.5 66.9 63.3 80.9 96.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 51.4 64.5 64.9 149.8 80.8 68.5 31.3 37.0 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------